1) After leading the country in the number of #COVID19 deaths and cases for months, Quebec now appears to be faring much better than Alberta and British Columbia. In this thread, I will try to explain Quebec’s apparent reversal of fortune in the #pandemic.

2) Quebec reported 55 #COVID19 cases Monday, the fifth daily decrease in a row. The province did not declare any deaths while hospitalizations have trended downward. But the number of patients in intensive care is stuck at 25 and outbreaks continue to flare up sporadically.

3) Montreal, once the undisputed epicenter of the #pandemic in Canada, posted 10 new #COVID19 cases even as Quebec screens people in high numbers. The last time the city recorded fewer cases was on July 6, with eight infections — just before Quebec's alcohol-fueled resurgence.

4) By comparison, a dozen cases were reported on Monday in Toronto, where a strip club employee may have exposed more than 500 people to #COVID19 since Aug. 4. Provincially, Ontario posted 99 new cases, almost double Quebec’s tally.

5) In Alberta, the government declared 96 cases within the previous 24 hours on Monday. In total, 359 more people tested positive for the #coronavirus since Friday. The province is grappling with several #COVID19 outbreaks, including at a Cargill processing facility in Calgary.

6) In British Columbia, long lauded for its #pandemic response, Health Minister Adrian Dix announced that three clubs and bars have been closed. In total, 236 new cases were reported since Friday. B.C. will soon unveil stricter penalties for those flouting public health rules.

7) So what explains Quebec’s sudden change of fortune? Two developments. The first occurred on July 5, when the director of the Montérégie public health department urged people who visited a bar in Brossard to get tested following an outbreak there.

8) Then on July 11, the Montreal public health department sounded the alarm about multiple #COVID19 outbreaks in bars. This stunned many younger Montrealers, thousands of whom waited in line for hours to get tested for the #coronavirus.

9) Health Minister @cdube_sante imposed new rules on bars amid the outbreaks — including a midnight last call — but refused to close them. Still, the negative publicity surrounding the bars has compelled many Montrealers to stay away from them. https://globalnews.ca/news/7273125/montreal-bars-coronavirus-struggle/

10) The second development was Quebec’s decision — following sustained pressure by physicians — requiring nearly all Quebecers to wear face coverings in public spaces on July 18. Policy analyst @Patrickdery, who had been harping about masks for months, deserves some credit here.

11) In Alberta, masks were required in public indoor settings in Edmonton and Calgary on Aug. 1, but the government has not made the measure compulsory province-wide. In B.C., face coverings will be mandatory on public transit as of Aug. 24.

12) The resurgences in Alberta and B.C. demonstrate how the #pandemic can spread rapidly if complacency sets in among the public. Quebecers and the government need to keep this in mind, especially with poorly-ventilated schools set to reopen in less than two weeks. End of thread.