|| DJ MOORE DYNASTY WR1 THREAD ||
To start off, I do not even believe this should be a hot take. I will lay out the case for Moore over MT, Godwin, Hill, Nuk, Juju, Golladay, Adams, and AJ Brown, in that order. I've seen many sites rank these guys over DJ Moore in dynasty in some
capacity, so I'll tackle them all. Before I do that, I'll talk about contention window in dynasty. Everyone always says you play for the next 3-4 years... Isn't that a tired narrative? It makes sense for RBs, but for WRs.. really?! In 4 years, DJ Moore will be 27, younger than..
MT, Hopkins, and Adams are right NOW. If we are talking about these guys as top options in dynasty, we should acknowledge Moore is over 4 years younger than all of them. Instead, I propose a 5-7 year contention window. In 7 years, Moore will be 30, which is still younger than...
Julio Jones is right now, and Julio is still a top 5 WR in redraft at age 31. DJ Moore is unlikely to have a career like Julio (because we can't assume any WR will), but still, in 5 years he'll be the age of Nuk, and in 7 years, he'll be younger than Julio. If we identify an…
elite WR at age 23 like Moore, why do we assume we can't forecast if he'll be good by age 27? Why the 3-4 year window? Moore produced last season at age 22 with absolutely horrendous QB play from Kyle Allen. His situation can't get worse than that, so there's no QB narrative to
spin. He's going to be good for a long time, and his production is not dependent on his QB's skill level. Now, let's turn attention to Moore vs. all the WRs I've seen ranked ahead of him in dynasty. This part should be quick, assuming the 5-7 year window that I'm arguing for WRs.
MT is 27, Moore is 23. In 4 years, MT will be 31 and on the decline. In 4 years, Moore will be 27 and in his prime. Brees may be retired in 2 years, how much of MT's production and insane volume is tied to Brees... MT will likely out-produce Moore for the next 2 years with Brees,
but what happens after that? Moore was the WR16 with a rookie QB with a dog 💩 arm. That's his floor for the next 5-7 years. He was only 6.9 (nice) PPR pts behind Landry for WR12, so he's already a low-end WR1 type in the worst situation for a WR. Next up is Godwin. While Godwin
is only a year older than Moore, it took him until his 3rd year to become an elite fantasy WR. Moore broke out year 2. Godwin also benefitted from Jameis leading the NFL in pass attempts and pass yards. Brady is not going to give Godwin that volume, and we don't know if Godwin..
can produce with a bad QB. What happens after Brady leaves TB? Does Godwin leave in free agency? Too many what ifs for me, when Moore had 400 more total yards than Godwin at age 22 with a bad QB. On to Tyreek Hill, who is 3 years older than Moore and has a 50% dud rate in fantasy
I don't need 100% consistency, since I like volatility, but a 50% dud rate can ruin a lot of fantasy playoff matchups. Plus, what happens if Hill catches passes in a couple years from someone other than Mahomes...?
Hopkins, as I mentioned before, is 28, 5 years older than Moore. He's had an amazing career but that's just too much of an age difference, plain and simple. Juju is only slightly older, but his inability to put up any type of production with bad QB play gives the edge to Moore.
Believe it or not, Golladay is already about to be 27, so he's almost 4 years older than Moore. He's tethered to Stafford right now, but also he only has 1 stud season through age 26, so Moore > Golladay. Adams is interesting because he was a mega producer in 2017 with Brett
Hundley under center. However, Adams won't feast forever, as he won't see a guy like Lazard as the #2 on the depth chart. Adams should be elite another 2-4 years, while Moore hits his prime in 4 years. Adams is also 4.5 years older than Moore, notice a theme here? Moore is only
23 years old. That cannot be understated as I make the case for him as the WR1 in dynasty. AJ Brown and DJ Moore are the same age. Brown's rookie year out-produced Moore's rookie year. But, Tannehill had historic efficiency and Brown had over 20 yards per reception. I want to see
Brown do it again in 2020 before I consider putting him above Moore. Brown's sample size is only 84 targets at the NFL level. In a year, I may be writing this same thread, but about AJ Brown. Oh, you want to know more about Moore? His credentials also include: 1st rd pick, 99th..
percentile college target share (43.6%), 4.42 speed, alpha WR size (210 lbs), 98th percentile breakout age, and a 97th percentile college dominator rating. He can also play on special teams, proof of his outstanding yards after catch ability (#8 in NFL last year with 392 YAC).
What are your thoughts? Is DJ Moore WR1 in dynasty still that bold?! @Fantasy_Mansion, when are you moving him ⬆️ the dynasty rankings? 😉 Tagging a few accounts to help this circulate and to allow for broader discussion: @Josh_Spieker @MyFantasyLeague @dynastymasters
@jmthrivept @aaronstew09 @CarpentierNFL @FFWuTang4evah @Matty_S2S @RayRayMarz @Kyle_FFRecon @FFDopester @rbkeeney
Hope you guys enjoy, was this convincing at all? Feedback is appreciated
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