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The only way hydrogen might serve as anything other than a short-lived “lifeline” for O&G in Canada is if there is laser-like focus on producing the cleanest H in the world. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/home-of-the-oil-sands-eyes-cleaner-future-as-hydrogen-superpower?sref=52ZWO6YM Slapping carbon capture & storage on SMR (“blue”) hydrogen isn’t... 1/ #cdnpoli
…going to cut it given the significant upstream methane emissions from O&G production https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-as-canada-curbs-methane-emissions-new-measurements-show-problem/ Need step-wise changes in tech, e.g. @Proton_Canada https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/07/14/news/saskatchewan-pilots-hydrogen-fuel-future Canada needs clean hydrogen to help decarbonize the “toughest third” industrial… 2/
…& transportation emissions (steel, heavy-duty trucks, shipping and cement) https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2020/04/06/hydrogen-could-be-the-clean-fuel-of-the-future-for-the-dirtiest-industries/#4133e368988d & we are well-positioned to be a significant exporter. https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/files/publication/Addleton_PflugmannDeBlasio_The%20Geopolitics%20of%20Renewable%20Hydrogen%20in%20Low-Carbon%20Energy%20Markets.pdf How big is the opportunity? IHS Markit: "The greater the degree of a decarbonization...” 3/
...the greater the likely role of hydrogen in the energy future” http://news.ihsmarkit.com/prviewer/release_only/slug/bizwire-2020-7-15-ihs-markit-production-of-carbon-free-green-hydrogen-could-be-cost-competitive-by-2030 They conclude that production of carbon-free (green) hydrogen could be cost-competitive by 2030 (recall: short life span for “blue” H with a significant upstream carbon footprint). 4/
That said, in the near-term there are benefits to developing blue & green H in parallel (in part to build out the demand side more quickly). Ultimately, as I’ve noted before it’s going to be carbon intensity, not “colour,” that matters. Canada has both national & various... 5/
…provincial hydrogen roadmaps & strategies “coming soon” - but if Canada wants to compete, it’s going to take some significant public investment (& convening, coordinating & cajoling) to position the industry to succeed. There’s no shortage of competition... 6/
…e.g. the EU vs China https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/europe-vies-china-clean-hydrogen-superpower-status & many are using post-COVID economic recovery efforts to spur development of (& comparative advantage) domestic hydrogen economies (start local, then export global). If you want to assess how serious Alberta, BC & Canada are… 7/
…we should have a pretty good sense this fall when their respective hydrogen strategies come out & they roll out further economic recovery plans. Stay tuned. 8/8
