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THREAD: O-Ring theory and how it relates to football squads:
O-Ring theory states (basically) that a system is only as strong as it’s weakest element. (AKA chain-link theory in economics).
Named after the faulty O-Rings on the space shuttle that led to the Chalenger disaster 1/
O-Ring theory states (basically) that a system is only as strong as it’s weakest element. (AKA chain-link theory in economics).
Named after the faulty O-Rings on the space shuttle that led to the Chalenger disaster 1/
The idea is that it doesn’t matter how good the strongest link in your chain is bc under stress your chain will always go at its weakest point.
It has lots of good applications in science but also in the way that complex systems work, and a great complex system is football 2/
It has lots of good applications in science but also in the way that complex systems work, and a great complex system is football 2/
There are a couple of very successful sides that use this approach in English football - can you guess them?
That’s right, Liverpool and Man City. Liverpool as it’s a strong conceptual piece of their moneyball-like approach (along with not signing injury-prone players) 3/
That’s right, Liverpool and Man City. Liverpool as it’s a strong conceptual piece of their moneyball-like approach (along with not signing injury-prone players) 3/
And makes sense of their first XI transfer policy in the recent past - players are always big upgrades or not signed at all. And the areas targeted are always the weakest spots.
Same is true of Man City, there’s a reason they kept buying full-backs- It’s their weakest area 4/
Same is true of Man City, there’s a reason they kept buying full-backs- It’s their weakest area 4/
The fact they’ve not sorted it out is a failure of scouting rather than philosophy.
And the thing is this approach WORKS the downside is that the players and position you invest in to take this approach are not at the sexy end of the pitch so... 5/
And the thing is this approach WORKS the downside is that the players and position you invest in to take this approach are not at the sexy end of the pitch so... 5/
Clubs often end up with lopsided, poorly performing teams.
Barca spent 750m on transfers, all at wrong end of the pitch, because even though they know about O-Ring theory it doesn’t win elections. They could have spent the Neymar money on centre-halves and
midfield energy 6/
Barca spent 750m on transfers, all at wrong end of the pitch, because even though they know about O-Ring theory it doesn’t win elections. They could have spent the Neymar money on centre-halves and
midfield energy 6/
Man U have spent 450m on transfers and still need a DM a LB and another CB but won’t because even though they know about O-Ring theory Ed wants another marquee signing for noodle sales. They should spend the Sancho money on Konate and Chilwell. But they won’t. 7/
Chelsea have spent all summer buying forward players because Roman loves a striker they know about O-Ring theory too but even though they have a huge gaps at CB and GK they’ll buy Havertz because sexy players beats sexy economic theory. 8/
So in summary:
Weakest area of first XI should be the priority.
Stuff gets in the way of this happening (elections, noodles, sexy strikers)
But it still stands up - if you want another great example of a team that does this well...
FC Bayern
9/
Weakest area of first XI should be the priority.
Stuff gets in the way of this happening (elections, noodles, sexy strikers)
But it still stands up - if you want another great example of a team that does this well...
FC Bayern
9/
Finally... this sort of theory plays out best over a long period (sample size etc)
So teams with great disparity of talent in the XI can for short periods play up to a high level but get found out over a long period.
We call these cup teams.
/end
#football #moneyball
So teams with great disparity of talent in the XI can for short periods play up to a high level but get found out over a long period.
We call these cup teams.
/end
#football #moneyball
