FACT CHECK: Pres. Trump's Press Briefing on 8/15

(1/2) “We're currently witnessing the fastest economic recovery in American history…. “We've not only recovered but we're at a much higher level than we were even then… I think you're going to have an incredible GDP:”

(2/2) NOT TRUE
• GDP fell by 5% in Q1 and by 32.9% in Q2, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis
• It’s not clear that we’ll see a positive number in Q3, especially with some states and locales closing again;
• The economy is in recession not a recovery.

“It turns out that it will be a very, very strong 'V,' and you'll see that in just a second:”

• Maybe, maybe not
• Increasingly, more economists are forecasting a “W” shaped recovery, with fits and starts, due to closures, openings, and closures again.

(1/2) “Retail spending has fully recovered and is now at an all-time high:”

• True, but…
• Retail sales picked up by 1.2% in July from June, rising to $535B for the month, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis
• That could be the highest in recent memory

(2/2) cont'd:
• Sales of retail and food services were greased by online purchases
• BUT, economists wonder if the sales will retrench after all the federal relief measures expire, or are used up

(1/2) “Auto production has surged 28 percent:”

• True, but…
• Overall factory output rose 3.4% in July from the previous month, according to the Federal Reserve
• Overall output was pulled higher by a 28.3% gain in production of cars, trucks and auto parts

(2/2) cont'd...
• Most auto plants shut down completely when the coronavirus emergency hit in March and April, so a surge in production was expected when they reopened.

“Used car sales are setting a record:”

• True
• The average listing price of used vehicles was pushed upwards to $21,558 in July, up $708 from June, according to Edmunds
• Demand for used cars has accelerated during the pandemic

“The stock market is almost at an all-time high.”

• True
• The S&P 500 dipped precipitously during COVID, but has recovered its losses
• It’s close to breaking a new record last set in February before COVID hit.

“In fact, NASDAQ is at an all-time high…. It's had 14 days where we broke the record already over the last 2 months:”

• True
• The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 11,108 on 8/6
• While it has come down since then, it had been on a record breaking streak in recent months

“Through the historic relief package that I signed into law, we saved over 50 million American jobs”

• True
• The SBA reports that 51 million jobs were saved by the PPP program.

https://www.sba.gov/about-sba/sba-newsroom/press-releases-media-advisories/ppp-save-over-51-million-jobs

(1/2) “Small business optimism has come surging back. In June, it was higher than any month under the previous administration… small business optimism was higher than any month under the previous administration.”

(2/2)
• True, but…
• NFIB July Survey: the optimism index declined by 1.8 points from June. The June survey was up by 6.2 points after falling sharply March-May. The current level is comparable to what it was at its highest point during the Obama administration (diff of ~.2)

“Industrial production is increasing at the fastest rate ever recorded:”

• Not true
• Production has come down in recent months, because of COVID: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO/ 

“Consumer spending is expected to grow at an astronomical rate this quarter.”

• True that it is expected to grow, but…
• “Astronomical” is very subjective. The projected consumer spending is 8% in Q3, compared to -11.6% in Q2.
• Overall annual rate is projected to be -4.1%