No one in Belarus should be reacting to Lukashenko's promise of new elections once the constitution is redrafted as if it's good news. \\thread https://www.rbc.ru/politics/17/08/2020/5f3a8ace9a794758d50b1923?from=from_main_1

Reforming the Constitution will take at minimum months and almost certainly be a process controlled by regime insiders--esp given the weakness of the organized opposition. That means the regime will get to pick and choose who is represented in the reform process and how. \\2

That provides an excellent opportunity to create splits in the still-nascent opposition movement. Right now, major divisions over tactics, politics etc haven't emerged, but they will within the next few weeks and months. \\3

Further, the likelihood that mobilization will be sustained through the constitutional reform process is low. No shade to Belarus, but sustaining mass movements is INCREDIBLY difficult, especially when the culture of activism is weak and the regime is eager to repress. \\4

That means we're likely to see a "reformed" constitution, a factionalized opposition and another election that Lukahsenko can walk away with. "But why are you so sure?" you ask... \\5

Because literally this exact same tactic was used in Morocco in 2011 during the Arab Spring. Top-down constitutional reform was announced, protest fizzled and the country ended up with a more authoritarian constitution than previously. \\6

Belarussians shouldn't see the promise of a new constitution and eventually new elections as a win--they should see it as a threat meant to undermine the movement, and a sign of Lukashenko's fear of what's to come. \\end