1/ In their 2019 paper, Complexity Investing, NZS suggests that, “products, services…can be optimized for RESILIENCE…cash generative businesses that...fund a series of OPTIONAL investments…”
Thermo Fisher, $TMO, epitomizes this strategy
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ca38f3216b6405d11e3d4b4/t/5cd77067c830251ea8301574/1557622902586/ComplexityInvesting_9.1.8_Aug19-1.pdf
@bradsling
Thermo Fisher, $TMO, epitomizes this strategy
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ca38f3216b6405d11e3d4b4/t/5cd77067c830251ea8301574/1557622902586/ComplexityInvesting_9.1.8_Aug19-1.pdf
@bradsling
2/ TMO uses cash generated from their resilient businesses, laboratory equipment, supplies and services as well as diagnostic instruments, and through a systemic M&A program, buys high optionality businesses serving the pharmaceutical industry
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/taking-a-longer-term-look-at-m-and-a-value-creation
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/taking-a-longer-term-look-at-m-and-a-value-creation
3/ The Company’s lineage begins with Fisher Scientific in 1902 and separately, Thermo Electron in 1956
By January 2004, Thermo finished simplifying their corporate structure, buying out minority shareholders of 22 subsidiaries spun out in the 1990s and divesting non-core assets
By January 2004, Thermo finished simplifying their corporate structure, buying out minority shareholders of 22 subsidiaries spun out in the 1990s and divesting non-core assets
4/ On 11/9/2006, the businesses merged to form TMO in an all stock deal with Fisher shareholders owning 61% of the combined entity
TMO operated two segments; Analytical Instruments and Laboratory Products and Services
Thermo’s CEO, Marijn Dekkers became CEO of Thermo Fisher
TMO operated two segments; Analytical Instruments and Laboratory Products and Services
Thermo’s CEO, Marijn Dekkers became CEO of Thermo Fisher
5/ Dekkers resigned in late 2009 to become CEO of Bayer. TMO promoted their 41-year-old COO, Marc Casper, to CEO
Casper joined Thermo as an SVP in 2006 following their acquisition of Kendro, a $200mm revenues / year business he lead as CEO https://www.newtownbee.com/kendro-laboratory-products-names-marc-n-casper-president-and-ceo/
Casper joined Thermo as an SVP in 2006 following their acquisition of Kendro, a $200mm revenues / year business he lead as CEO https://www.newtownbee.com/kendro-laboratory-products-names-marc-n-casper-president-and-ceo/
6/ Under Casper’s leadership, The Company has spent 1.3x their FCF on 66 deals, adding $10.1B in sales and $2.6B in EBITDA
In that time, TMO’s stock annualized total returns have outperformed the S&P 500 and its Health Care Segment, XLV, by 11.5% and 9.7% respectively
In that time, TMO’s stock annualized total returns have outperformed the S&P 500 and its Health Care Segment, XLV, by 11.5% and 9.7% respectively
7/ Valuing each segment separately using publicly traded pure-play comparable companies, TMO’s EV is cheap and their equity even cheaper where the stats do not justify a discount
Their track record of value creation deserves a conglomerate premium on top of the segment's values
Their track record of value creation deserves a conglomerate premium on top of the segment's values
8 / TMO’s Life Science Solutions Segments (LSS) generated $2.8B in FCF last year and is The Company’s most valuable collection of businesses
LSS Segment Sales, FCF and FCF ROA all compare favorably to their peer group
LSS Segment Sales, FCF and FCF ROA all compare favorably to their peer group
9/ TMO’s Analytical Instruments and Specialty Diagnostics Segments have similar margin profiles, 23-24%, and capex needs, 1-2% of sales annually
The Segments combined 8.1% 5Yr. FCF CAGRs is nearly ½ that of their peer group and so deserves a discounted valuation
The Segments combined 8.1% 5Yr. FCF CAGRs is nearly ½ that of their peer group and so deserves a discounted valuation
10 / The Laboratory Products and Services Segment masks TMO’s contract drug manufacturing business (CDMO) a market growing ~25% annually
Lonza is a pure-play CDMO and trades for 59.7x FCF, in contrast to mid 20s multiples for diagnostics businesses and CROs
Lonza is a pure-play CDMO and trades for 59.7x FCF, in contrast to mid 20s multiples for diagnostics businesses and CROs
11/ Covid-19 has generated significant demand for TMO’s PCR tests as well as their cross-segment offerings supporting vaccine research and development
The Company’s investments and response to the crisis evokes Andy Grove’s quote
https://venturebeat.com/2020/04/23/intel-ceo-bad-companies-are-destroyed-by-crises-great-companies-are-improved-by-them/
The Company’s investments and response to the crisis evokes Andy Grove’s quote
https://venturebeat.com/2020/04/23/intel-ceo-bad-companies-are-destroyed-by-crises-great-companies-are-improved-by-them/
12/ TMO expects to 65% of FCF on M&A over the next three years, significantly less than the 1.3x FCF they used over the last decade
Their failed Gatan and Qiagen bids evidence hurdles The Company will face due to their size
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/thermo-fisher-scientific-and-roper-technologies-announce-termination-of-gatan-acquisition-300864264.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qiagen-m-a-thermo-fisher/thermo-fisher-terminates-deal-for-genetic-testing-firm-qiagen-idUSKCN2591P3
Their failed Gatan and Qiagen bids evidence hurdles The Company will face due to their size
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/thermo-fisher-scientific-and-roper-technologies-announce-termination-of-gatan-acquisition-300864264.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qiagen-m-a-thermo-fisher/thermo-fisher-terminates-deal-for-genetic-testing-firm-qiagen-idUSKCN2591P3
13/ TMO is a conglomerate of best in breed businesses that together form a juggernaut with strong future prospects powering health care and pharma industries
Valuation is reasonable and management is long-tenured, heavily invested, owning ~$733mm of stock and very capable
Valuation is reasonable and management is long-tenured, heavily invested, owning ~$733mm of stock and very capable