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On Pakistan - Saudi Arabia Relations (A Thread)
When states interact, there is always a two way traffic. Lets go through some ground facts before jumping to conclusions like many of us did in past two weeks. +
When states interact, there is always a two way traffic. Lets go through some ground facts before jumping to conclusions like many of us did in past two weeks. +
2 - In Pakistan there is a habit of taking things out of context, making mockery of ourselves and also presenting half baked analysis. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are no two different cases when it comes down to state craft, IR and prevailing geo-political scenarios. +
3 - It was never & it will never be a one way traffic as it had been presented by some of our analysts& political point scoring is on the rise by many. Imagine if Pakistan's defence shield is no more in KSA - What will happen?
but before that lets have a look at a few things: +
but before that lets have a look at a few things: +
4 - Pakistan's defence shield comprises of servicemen (Figures not confirmed) serving in Saudi Military. They are deployed on all fronts of external/internal threats. Out of them, as per a senate briefing, 1,671 were serving officers of Pak Armed forces: https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/03/13/as-many-as-1671-pakistan-military-personnel-deployed-in-saudi-arabia-na-told/
5 - General (R) Raheel Sharif is leading an alliance we all are aware of. It is one of the biggest military investment made by KSA to safeguard its interests in the name of fighting against terrorism. +
6 - KSA is said to be the largest importer of Pakistan's defence products. Pakistan secured a 81M $ contract in 2018 from KSA only. + https://www.dawn.com/news/1256712
7 - There are numerous other contracts and protocols in place, most famous of them is protocol of 1982. There are other bilateral agreements, through which military personals, advisers and defence equipment has been "exported" to KSA from Pakistan. + https://www.dawn.com/news/1537930
8 - Connecting the above with Pakistan's strategic partner - China. BRI's flagship project is CPEC. KSA is going to host a mega event "Arab- China Summit" - It is in the background of Chinese investment in KSA through BRI. https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2020/07/07/Saudi-Arabia-plans-to-host-Arab-Chinese-summit-furthering-ties-in-various-fields
9 - Out of China's top 15 oil providers, first nine belongs to middle east and KSA tops the list in all of them, with a 40.1B US $ export of oil to China (This is a 2019 figure). This was 16.8% of total imports of oil into China. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=43216
10 - Now consider this - States dont just take rash decisions. They analyze, see the fault lines and play around it & KSA's total defence mechanism's 80% is directed towards the threats originating from Iran or Turkey and their proxies. There is no denying this fact. +
11 - The protocols signed with Pakistan are mainly to avert and defend KSA from these threats, along with threats originating from Israel-Jordanian-Saudi Border. Pakistan's troops remained part of Combat brigade on this side of the Kingdom as well.
12 - The immediate threat that KSA fears may resurface is the internal implosion due to weakening economy in the wake of decline in oil prices and Covid-19.
BUT there is a demon from the history as well, which haunts KSA. We faced that demon in Pak as well - Terrorism +
BUT there is a demon from the history as well, which haunts KSA. We faced that demon in Pak as well - Terrorism +
13 - Well before 911, when OBL launched World Islamic Front aka Al Qaida, he criticized KSA for bringing down the US boots on grounds. He criticized Royals of KSA & asked them to drive the Jews and Christians out of Arabian Peninsula. https://fas.org/irp/world/para/docs/980223-fatwa.htm
14 - This resulted into a call for all those war veterans from Afghan Jihad era, who were inspired by the ideology of WIF. Literature of Ikhwan (which was prevelant in WIF or AQ) and its offshoots served the purpose for these elements (See the Shur'a council name of WIF) +
15 - And then we saw rise in the attacks inside KSA, bombings and Suicide attacks both. Target killings included. Prominent one was Khobar Tower Bombings -
Post 911, we in Pakistan witnessed & experienced it on another extreme. https://www.britannica.com/event/Khobar-Towers-bombing-of-1996
Post 911, we in Pakistan witnessed & experienced it on another extreme. https://www.britannica.com/event/Khobar-Towers-bombing-of-1996
16 - These WIF or commonly known as Al Qaida elements were heavily inspired by the literature and ideology of Ikhwan's offshoots - A political ideology turned violent regime, which wreaked havoc in Egypt, Algeria, Sudan and later on in KSA and in the end in Pakistan. +
17 - KSA would certainly wont want these elements to rise again and that too at its weakest point in recent history. If Pak defence mechanism & advisory may be pulled out, who among the Muslim countries will be able to replace Pakistani servicemen & experience? +
18 - Also what impact will it have on Saudis& Chinese relations, when Chinese flagship project is associated with Pak?
KSA vs Ikhwans's ideology & its offshoots in the form of Iran, Turks & their proxies is a fault line & fear of Saudis which was exploited earlier by US +
KSA vs Ikhwans's ideology & its offshoots in the form of Iran, Turks & their proxies is a fault line & fear of Saudis which was exploited earlier by US +
19 - Therefore, I hope I wont be bragging when I state this: Turks and Iranians are very much aware of this fault-line & the only thing standing b/w an onslaught from outside and an implosion from inside of KSA is defence mechanism advised and placed by Pak +
20 - What if this defence shield become indifferent to the Middle eastern theater? (which is of course not in favor of any stake holder) & Saudis, therefore knows very well know how to keep Pakistan on their side, at least for now. +
21 - If anyone has any ambiguity about this pls read the article published by Arab news, authored by former KSA Ambassador to Pakistan, Dr Ali Awadh Al Asseri. You will get the picture. https://www.arabnews.com/node/1720441
So before mocking Pakistan Try to get hold of some background. (end)
So before mocking Pakistan Try to get hold of some background. (end)
