Read on Twitter
For many the situation in #Belarus is a cause for joy. I believe in democracy and freedom as much as anybody and do not object against what is happening now in the country. But instead of elation I unfortunately see more short-term danger and cause for alarm than most. A THREAD
I will shed no tears over Lukashenko. Unfortunately the bear in the room is not him but it is Russia. Hard to imagine that Moscow would allow the streets to oust a regime they consider to be legitimate right on their door step again.
Belarus is geopolitically too important for that to happen. Many argue that this is not the issue because the movement is nationalistic, not pro-EU. But Tikhanovskaya resides now in Lithuania and there is little doubt in Moscow that many EU countries will egg her and Belarus on.
One should also bear in mind that Russia has its own increasingly turbulent domestic context to consider. This factor, too, in my view, suggests that Russia will not allow things to proceed on their natural and increasingly inevitable course for long.
What can Russia do? I'm happy to be proven wrong but some kind of an intervention seems to be on the cards. The weird narrative concerning the NATO threat from Lukashenko seems to imply that it could take the form of direct military operation. I hope it will not come to this.
This leaves the EU in a bind. In the EU there clearly is no appetite to re-visit the events of 2014 in Ukraine. At the same time to show no sympathy to people fighting for the values we hold dear would be callous and cold-hearted. The words Scylla and Charybdis come to mind.
Currently EU leaders are saying a lot of nice words. But Tweets beg the question what does 'standing by' mean in actual fact? I hope the policy is not to say nice things and hope for the best. Also: If you encourage people, you must accept some responsibility for what may follow.
Here's the question: Is there any serious thinking behind the EU activities at the moment? Are the risks being weighed, scenarios considered and options assessed? I'd hate to see the mistakes of 2013-14 being repeated. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09668136.2016.1156055
In the very least, the EU should should refrain from creating the impression that it is an actor in the process within the country. Scenes like the EU Ambassadors laying flowers are harmful as they confirm the Russian paranoia about the Western orchestration behind the events.
Trying to talk to Russia in the present situation might not help much, either. There's too much bad blood and lack of trust on both sides for that to be really helpful. The possibility of dialogue that could help is non-existent. Which brings me to the end of this grim analysis:
Most probably this thread is already completely irrelevant. Likely the events in Belarus, Russia and the West already have their own logic and dynamic. We should brace for what comes next. I would rather err on the pessimistic side and be happily surprised than vice-versa. END
