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1/ Death penalty, wokeness, "Just Mercy", and statistical stolen base tweetstorm follows. I do not support the death penalty. I was not always of this opinion, but over the last decade or so I have come to find the irreversibility of it to be disqualifying.
2/ Irreversibility is important in an imperfect justice system implemented by and upon human beings.
3/ My older daughter and I were discussing the subject yesterday, and as I explained my discomfort with the possibility of executing innocent people, she told me with metaphysical certainty that "one in nine people on death row" are innocent.
4/ I looked at her quizzically, and I told her that I did not believe that to be true. She maintained that it was, and that she first became aware of it watching the powerful documentary "Just Mercy" ( https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/policing/spotlight/2020/01/09/just-mercy-shows-why-death-penalty-racial-disparity-should-make-you-angry/4418179002/).
5/ She then buttressed her argument byp pointing to a "study by the EJI (Equal Justice Initiative)". I said I will take a look at her references and then get back with her. I did, and here's what I found. If you go to the EJI website ( https://eji.org/issues/death-penalty/) and scroll down a…
6/ …bit, You will see under the heading of "Innocence and Error" an entry that stating that (with citations) 170 people have been exonerated and released from death row since 1973 (when the Supreme Court struck down existing death penalties spurring states to create new laws),…
7/ …while 1522 people have been executed since 1973--also with citation. Divide 1522 by 170 and voila-- you get the third entry--which is that "For every nine people executed, one person on death row has been exonerated."
8/ As a simple exercise in mathematics, this is unassailable. But it is misleading--purposely so.
9/ My daughter--and if my reading of some of the stories and discussion generated by this fine movie--believes from this oft cited "one in nine" statistic, that one in nine prisoners on death row are innocent. Which is exactly what those who proffer the statistic hope.
10/ But a more RELEVANT measure is the number of people exonerated (170) vs the number of people SENTENCED to death in the same period. My research indicates that the number of death sentences handed down in the same period (since 1973) is 8734 ( https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/sentencing-data/death-sentences-in-the-united-states-from-1977-by-state-and-by-year).
11/ Which using my daughter's math (and the math of many citing the "Just Mercy" one in nine improperly, yields a "1 in 51.4" figure. Now--let's return to my opening statement. I do not support the death penalty because of its irreversibility. Period.
12/ So one in nine or one in 51.4 is not the important thing here (for my policy view). I do however, think it is important to question the interpretation of statistics that are put forward to support a narrative that are -- questionable. Fin.
