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Parsing some of #Lukashenko's language yesterday and its reporting on the official #Belarus media - a little thread 1/
Let's start with the headline (apart from the irony of "not under pressure"). The emphasis on redistribution of power rather than his real emphasis on hanging on to it, underscores his desperate (+ likely doomed) bid to try and seize back the initiative 2/
Can't hand over power to "god knows who" - usual emphasis on "you know me". Of course, point is that the Belarusians were willing to vote in huge numbers for the same "god knows who". A fail. 3/
And yet, "come, sit down and let's work on the constit". Who? Tikhanovskaya? The factory workers? Theoretically, this could open the door to negotiations, but we know it's just a delaying tactic. 4/
Sure, let's hold talks, draft a new constitution, hold a referendum, then, of course, I'll share power. Trust me. Just be good boys and girls in the meantime. He knows he has to halt the oppos' momentum. 5/
But even so, he can't quite do it, even in his rhetoric. "I will not surrender the country to anyone." That's really the most truthful line in the whole speech. 6/
"I cannot live for ever." In short, in his mind, it sounds like he already considers himself president for life, although he is graciously willing to allow the Belarusians to dream of a different president when he's dead 7/
(Incidentally, a dangerous line to take, reminding me of my favourite threat from the Bond film License to Kill, when the narco warns the corrupt leader in his pocket "Remember, you're only president... for life" 8/)
So there you have my take. I could be reading too much between the likes, but it seems Batka is all-in and sees delay and the promise of concessions over the horizon as the way to blunt the oppo advance. I think he's misreading the situation badly, but we'll see. 9+END/
