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The crisis that is developing in the Eastern Mediterranean between Turkey, Greece, and other actors is extremely interesting. I think it holds some key insights into what the global order will look like in the aftermath of US unipolarity [A thread]
I think with the end of US unipolarity, the world will see a steep rise in power politics and neo-imperial ambitions. Moreover, this won't be from 'non-western' states like Russia and China (which have already started this process), but from US allies as well (1).
Take the Eastern Med as a case in point. The participants of the current crisis are primarily - Turkey and France as Middle powers, and of course Greece and Cyprus too (i'm leaving out Egypt for the time being).
Starting with Turkey. The failure to integrate itself into the EU in the 2000s, led it to focus itself eastward, and project itself as a middle power - or in terms of the Middle East, a great power (in the same way that Iran does).
It has sought to expand it's influence southward into Syria, Iraq, Libya and attain vital oil and gas reserves in the Eastern Med (bringing into conflict with it's neighbours). But why? Well, Erdogan has used it's historical role in the Middle East (Ottoman) and nationalism.
So Erdogan has used it's Ottoman/Islamic identity (rather than European identity) to justify it's expansion. This has brought it into conflict with the US (northern Syria) and Greece (Aegean/Cyprus). But why now? Why not immediately after the Cold War (A reason for cooperation).
Well I think a big reason for that is because of the decline in the US. The US not only restrained Turkey in Cyprus in 1974 by immediately sanctioning them, but also was a pillar for states to revolve around (since they were the only superpower).
Turkey can't benefit from US dominance in the world anymore, and without European integration, has sought to carve itself an area of influence, to exert its dominance, and secure itself and it's interests (international being survival, domestic as regaining its rightful position)
The same can be said for France. Recently France has been exerting itself in the Eastern Med (being a primary supporter of Greece, Haftar, Cyprus) as well as in Lebanon too. It has also sought a greater role in European politics in general.
France, and especially it's political elite, are quite nationalistic (science po has a required module on 'French Civilisation'... like what?). Once again, I think that without the US as a unifying force for a Liberal World Order, many states are seeking their own path.
But the most important, and telling aspect of my reasoning is the fact that both are NATO members that are seeking to undermine each others positions in the Eastern Med, to gain further strength in that region (economic or political), and is timed at a time when US power is dying
If the US wasn't in decline (and I believe it to be in rapid decline), it would have the political capital (which it doesn't because of fractures at home) to stop it's NATO allies from openly challenging each other and undermining the alliance.
The US is loosing it's capacity to exert itself and has been since the end of the Iraq war. Till it's domestic politics is fixed, it's likely it will continue this trajectory, and as a result can no longer be the glue that hold NATO allies together, or neo-imperial ambition.
Now, although the focus of this thread is Turkey and France, the same can be said for other states/regional blocs. Egypt/Saudi/UAE. Iran's axis of Resistance, Russia. Which brings me onto a further point...
The inter-imperial rivalry that occurred in the 1800s saw European states rival, and befriend each other on many occasions when it suited them best. The best example is France and the UK, fighting wars with each other (Crimea), and against each other (Napoleon and almost Africa)
This new multipolarity is increasingly looking like the European one of the 1800s where states cooperate on some issues (Turkey and Iran against Kurdish interests in Northern Iraq) and fight on others (Turkey and Iran backing two different sides in Syria).
So, in addition to the breakdown relations between NATO allies, and the rise of neo-imperialism by states that act in the new multipolar world. It is likely that this new multipolarity will be akin to that of Europe's multipolarity 200 years prior. Atleast in the MENA.
