#FPL ‘small sample size’ standouts

A look at some players to watch and some potential gems

It’s often hard to see the wood for the trees in FPL

A player’s previous numbers can be deceiving & deflate them as an option

A player could have been afforded an opportunity late in the season, nailed down a spot & done well, but the numbers will only read:

50pts | 900 mins

So, I’ve taken a look at “what could be” if a player was to play a “full” season

If a player played 90 mins (m) of every game, they would play 3,420m

To make this analysis more realistic, let’s apply a 10% deduction. 3,078m

Player “X” | 87pts | 1800m

87 / 1800 x 3078 = 149pts

Of course, this data is to be taken with a pinch of salt, as there are some variables. For example, coming onto the pitch for 10 mins vs. 10 men that are already losing and scoring - which would skew the output

For a greater level of accuracy, I have applied the following model

For every 9 appearances as a sub 10% is deducted from the overall projected points

Where applicable, the original calculation is still shown, and deducted points model in brackets alongside

* = 10% reduction
** = 20% reduction

Additional key:

nailed
one to watch
possible rotation
potential gem
position swap
‘Project Restart’ form
possible team upgrade

Goalkeepers:

*5.5*
Lloris = 167pts
30pts per million spent (pms)


*5.0*
Fabianski = 121pts
24pts pms


Leno = 132pts
26pts pms


*4.5*
Martinez = 132pts
29pts pms


McCarthy = 127pts
28pts pms

Defenders:

*5.5*
Chilwell = 148pts
27pts pms


Gomez = 143pts
26pts pms


Aurier = 141pts
26pts pms


*4.5*
Taylor = 133pts
30pts pms


Lamptey = 129pts
29pts pms


Pieters = 126pts
28pts pms

Midfielders:

*8.5*
Mahrez = 279pts (251pts*)
30pts pms


Pulisic = 228pts
27pts pms


*7.5*
Greenwood = 243pts (194pts**)
26pts pms


*6.5*
Bowen = 148pts
23pts pms


Jota = 142pts
22pts pms


*6.0*
Trossard = 160pts
27pts pms

Midfielders continued:

*6.0*
Hourihane = 167pts (151pts)
25pts pms


*5.5*
Armstrong = 177pts (159pts*)
29pts pms


Saint-Maximin = 152pts
28pts pms


Trézéguet = 156pts (140pts*)
26pts pms


*5.0*
Soucek = 121pts
24pts pms

Forwards:

*6.5*
Antonio = 193pts
30pts pms


*6.0*
Adams = 219pts (175pts*)
29pts pms


Rodriguez = 154pts (139pts*)
23pts pms

A few honourable mentions for those who have more variables, but are ones to watch and potential when considering the model above:

*8.0*
Alli

*6.5*
Foden

*6.0*
Yarmolenko
El Ghazi

*5.5*
Djenepo