Read on Twitter
1/25
There are very good reasons why #AVCT is holding strong at these levels.
6th Aug RNS ;
"production capacity of millions of tests per month"
"continuing our discussions with other manufacturing partners to ensure that we have access to additional manufacturing capacity"
There are very good reasons why #AVCT is holding strong at these levels.
6th Aug RNS ;
"production capacity of millions of tests per month"
"continuing our discussions with other manufacturing partners to ensure that we have access to additional manufacturing capacity"
2/25
"to address the global need for SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing both now, and in the next few years."
Now many talk about 10s of millions of tests being sold a month. Great! That's very possible.
Personally, I continue to respect potential manufacturing ramp up challenges,
"to address the global need for SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing both now, and in the next few years."
Now many talk about 10s of millions of tests being sold a month. Great! That's very possible.
Personally, I continue to respect potential manufacturing ramp up challenges,
3/25
until such time I can see the next phase take shape. That's not to say I don't believe those figs. aren't achievable. Its more that in my view scale up won't happen overnight.
So my very conservative thinking right now, is c. 5m test sales per month over the first year.
until such time I can see the next phase take shape. That's not to say I don't believe those figs. aren't achievable. Its more that in my view scale up won't happen overnight.
So my very conservative thinking right now, is c. 5m test sales per month over the first year.
4/25
So 60m in the first year.
Right now I lean towards larger contracts front end, sold through direct deals with government/healthcare institutions/depts.
Therefore, we are talking bulk.
So my price per unit is c. £10.
So 60m in the first year.
Right now I lean towards larger contracts front end, sold through direct deals with government/healthcare institutions/depts.
Therefore, we are talking bulk.
So my price per unit is c. £10.
5/25
I cannot see a situation where under those circumstances, AVCT don't receive at least £2.50 per sale.
Therefore, even at these conservative levels, we are talking c. £150m for AVCT, in that first year.
However, as I have said for some time,
I cannot see a situation where under those circumstances, AVCT don't receive at least £2.50 per sale.
Therefore, even at these conservative levels, we are talking c. £150m for AVCT, in that first year.
However, as I have said for some time,
6/25
AVCT will enjoy strong sales "the next few years" and said further manufacturing negotiations, help support that view.
Any vaccine attempting to supply the world, is going to take years to roll out and will only eliminate high levels of testing, if it turns out to be
AVCT will enjoy strong sales "the next few years" and said further manufacturing negotiations, help support that view.
Any vaccine attempting to supply the world, is going to take years to roll out and will only eliminate high levels of testing, if it turns out to be
7/25
one of the best performing vaccinations of all time.
In reality, there are parts of the world that won't even see a vaccine for 12-18 months after it starts production, if indeed at all.
The project is just too damn big and there's too many agendas involved.
one of the best performing vaccinations of all time.
In reality, there are parts of the world that won't even see a vaccine for 12-18 months after it starts production, if indeed at all.
The project is just too damn big and there's too many agendas involved.
8/25
In addition, world wide testing performance to date, has demonstrated just how bad these things can and will be managed.
So an endemic Covid, will mean recurring sales for as long as the virus remains so deadly.
In addition, world wide testing performance to date, has demonstrated just how bad these things can and will be managed.
So an endemic Covid, will mean recurring sales for as long as the virus remains so deadly.
9/25
With that view in mind, that £150m is the least that AVCT should be expecting in year 2.
However, with year 2 comes the time and money that will have been invested in year 1, to increase manufacturing and extend into a great many new regulatory jurisdictions,
With that view in mind, that £150m is the least that AVCT should be expecting in year 2.
However, with year 2 comes the time and money that will have been invested in year 1, to increase manufacturing and extend into a great many new regulatory jurisdictions,
10/25
with a clear emphasis on those countries where Covid is the greatest threat.
Margins may adjust down but capacity should adjust upwards.
Given the expected quality of the AVCT test and for those with any doubt, the "very high demand" message, is the pointed give away,
with a clear emphasis on those countries where Covid is the greatest threat.
Margins may adjust down but capacity should adjust upwards.
Given the expected quality of the AVCT test and for those with any doubt, the "very high demand" message, is the pointed give away,
11/25
there is no reason to believe that any circumstances would come along (Covid blowing itself out aside), that would eliminate AVCT's ability to maintain those sorts of sales, for several more years down the line.
However, with time comes more business development.
there is no reason to believe that any circumstances would come along (Covid blowing itself out aside), that would eliminate AVCT's ability to maintain those sorts of sales, for several more years down the line.
However, with time comes more business development.
12/25
Same RNS ;
"appointment of an experienced in-vitro diagnostic Product Development Manager"
"expanding the protein production facilities"
"for the COVID-19 tests and future diagnostic tests in the pipeline."
Same RNS ;
"appointment of an experienced in-vitro diagnostic Product Development Manager"
"expanding the protein production facilities"
"for the COVID-19 tests and future diagnostic tests in the pipeline."
13/25
As AVCT begins to truly exploit its covid tests markets in 2021, we are highly likely going to see them deliver further non Covid diagnostic tests.
A reminder.
As AVCT begins to truly exploit its covid tests markets in 2021, we are highly likely going to see them deliver further non Covid diagnostic tests.
A reminder.
14/25
Are the above examples capable of being marketed direct?
Who knows? What's key is the value and longevity of their markets and the fact that a recurring (example only) £150m in income, plus their current £50m and the actions it has allowed to date,
Are the above examples capable of being marketed direct?
Who knows? What's key is the value and longevity of their markets and the fact that a recurring (example only) £150m in income, plus their current £50m and the actions it has allowed to date,
15/25
allow AVCT to make the choice. In-house or wait and sell on.
One thing is for certain, if one can afford to take a bigger slice of the pie, then one surely would, particularly when the frustration with proposed partners is clear ;
Annual Report page 18 ;
allow AVCT to make the choice. In-house or wait and sell on.
One thing is for certain, if one can afford to take a bigger slice of the pie, then one surely would, particularly when the frustration with proposed partners is clear ;
Annual Report page 18 ;
16/25
Read it carefully. The plan has been on the table for some time but the resources simply weren't there.
They are now. Further Covid sales enhance it greatly and "in the pipeline," says its already on its way.
What's the chances AVCT don't pick the best fruit front end?
Read it carefully. The plan has been on the table for some time but the resources simply weren't there.
They are now. Further Covid sales enhance it greatly and "in the pipeline," says its already on its way.
What's the chances AVCT don't pick the best fruit front end?
17/25
I'd say zero.
Remember they don't have to be just for consumers. It says diagnostic tests only.
Then we have appointment of "Neil Bell as Chief Development Officer of Avacta Life Sciences with immediate effect"
"responsible for late stage pre-clinical and early clinical"
I'd say zero.
Remember they don't have to be just for consumers. It says diagnostic tests only.
Then we have appointment of "Neil Bell as Chief Development Officer of Avacta Life Sciences with immediate effect"
"responsible for late stage pre-clinical and early clinical"
18/25
"development of Avacta's pipeline of pre|CISION"pro-drugs and Affimer immunotherapies."
Appointment is designed help "to transition the business to a clinical stage biotech with multiple clinical programmes in the UK, Europe and the US,"
Expected c. H2 2021.
"development of Avacta's pipeline of pre|CISION"pro-drugs and Affimer immunotherapies."
Appointment is designed help "to transition the business to a clinical stage biotech with multiple clinical programmes in the UK, Europe and the US,"
Expected c. H2 2021.
19/25
Multiple clinical programmes. Not just AVA6000.
My view. The £48m raise set up the business to ready itself for H1 2021.
These new appointments demonstrate actions that the above path is being followed.
Multiple clinical programmes. Not just AVA6000.
My view. The £48m raise set up the business to ready itself for H1 2021.
These new appointments demonstrate actions that the above path is being followed.
20/25
Even an ability to 'just' sell 5m LFTs per month, opens up a multitude of avenues for AVCT, which to date have been suffocated by a lack of capital.
Things have now changed so much, that diagnostic opportunities and phase I clinical successes,
Even an ability to 'just' sell 5m LFTs per month, opens up a multitude of avenues for AVCT, which to date have been suffocated by a lack of capital.
Things have now changed so much, that diagnostic opportunities and phase I clinical successes,
21/25
no longer have to somebody else's prize.
AVCT has choice.
Now my LFT sales scenario may well be well short of the mark but it wasn't designed to be a final achievement.
no longer have to somebody else's prize.
AVCT has choice.
Now my LFT sales scenario may well be well short of the mark but it wasn't designed to be a final achievement.
22/25
It was designed to demonstrate what I feel is now the bare minimum we will see (be it time to implement is req) and how significant even that will be to the valuation, when given time to play out.
Meaning essentially all the room is on the upside,
It was designed to demonstrate what I feel is now the bare minimum we will see (be it time to implement is req) and how significant even that will be to the valuation, when given time to play out.
Meaning essentially all the room is on the upside,
23/25
be it pricing, sales, further diagnostic tests, AVA6000, further multiple clinical programmes etc etc. . .
and all paid for by said base case sales.
Calling AVCT out as a 1 trick pony, fails to appreciate what Covid sales will do to this business.
be it pricing, sales, further diagnostic tests, AVA6000, further multiple clinical programmes etc etc. . .
and all paid for by said base case sales.
Calling AVCT out as a 1 trick pony, fails to appreciate what Covid sales will do to this business.
24/25
Covid sales become broader substantial continuous diagnostic test sales.
Right now AVCT is being priced on front end Covid revenues, perceived to have limited legs.
A high performing Covid LFT, demonstrates how effective Affimers will be across the diagnostic board.
Covid sales become broader substantial continuous diagnostic test sales.
Right now AVCT is being priced on front end Covid revenues, perceived to have limited legs.
A high performing Covid LFT, demonstrates how effective Affimers will be across the diagnostic board.
25/25
Pigeon holing AVCT on its Covid sales is for me a big mistake because it ignores the catalysts that even fairly limited sales (my example) will achieve, even before we talk about clinical successes, which is truly blue sky and draws ever nearer.
Pigeon holing AVCT on its Covid sales is for me a big mistake because it ignores the catalysts that even fairly limited sales (my example) will achieve, even before we talk about clinical successes, which is truly blue sky and draws ever nearer.
