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I’ve covered Trump-Palestinian relations for its entirety. Question/concern in Ramallah *even before* Trump sworn in was: will Arabs sell us out?
That Pals made it this far & the sell out came just few months before poss end of Trump is unfortunate, but unsurprising. <THREAD>
That Pals made it this far & the sell out came just few months before poss end of Trump is unfortunate, but unsurprising. <THREAD>
Quote from senior Fatah official early Jan 2017:
“When it comes to Jerusalem, everyone will be united. And if some regimes have other priorities, they’ll either collapse or fall in line” (due to pressure from their publics).
This has been proven overly optimistic. /2
“When it comes to Jerusalem, everyone will be united. And if some regimes have other priorities, they’ll either collapse or fall in line” (due to pressure from their publics).
This has been proven overly optimistic. /2
So what’s Pal strategy now?
1. War for public opinion in Arab world, anti-UAE campaign (and vice versa to be fair). Hope there aren’t more Arab states coming – but there likely are. Rear guard action
2. Wait for Biden, pray…. /3
1. War for public opinion in Arab world, anti-UAE campaign (and vice versa to be fair). Hope there aren’t more Arab states coming – but there likely are. Rear guard action
2. Wait for Biden, pray…. /3
3. Ties w Israel? PA refusing to resume security/econ links severed pre-annexation – for now. Only hurts them & public. Need to re-examine
4. Reform within PLO/PA/Fatah? Reconciliation w Hamas? Reconciliation w Dahlan? All seem unlikely as genuine policy program, good luck /4
4. Reform within PLO/PA/Fatah? Reconciliation w Hamas? Reconciliation w Dahlan? All seem unlikely as genuine policy program, good luck /4
5. Outreach to Qatar/Turkey/Iran? As msg'ing play can’t be ruled out, but not real alternative
6. Hold steadfast to positions. More likely, no matter loss of Arabs
7. Gulf role in I-P peace process was always leverage/carrot for Israeli public –regional peace. Never decisive /5
6. Hold steadfast to positions. More likely, no matter loss of Arabs
7. Gulf role in I-P peace process was always leverage/carrot for Israeli public –regional peace. Never decisive /5
Idea of pan-Arab unity/solidarity behind Pals more myth than reality
Palestinian/PLO history full of Arab betrayals, proxy battles, factionalism, military conflict. Moments of genuine unanimity rare in relation to amount of backstabbing by various regimes at various times /6
Palestinian/PLO history full of Arab betrayals, proxy battles, factionalism, military conflict. Moments of genuine unanimity rare in relation to amount of backstabbing by various regimes at various times /6
'Outside-In' strategy for Mideast peace may sound good in theory. But at the end of the day Israelis & Palestinians have to live between the Med & Jordan, and they (not the Arab states) will have to decide how to resolve their conflict. Or not. <FIN>
