A few words about #Russia's attitude towards the situation in #Belarus:
1. Belarus is strategically important to Russia. Moscow's minimum goal in the current situation is to keep Belarus under control,especially in the defense sphere. Maximum - to force deeper integration w/RU.

2. Moscow's main problem is the massive revolt in BL & signs of gradual decomposition of the ruling elite. In this situation, RU's immediate goal is to:1)Prevent the uncontrolled collapse of the regime.2)Obtaining a guarantee of respecting its interests in the event of change.

3. In order to achieve the abovementioned goals Russia is trying to create an impression that is preparing to intervene in order to scare off Lukashenka's opponents, elite members & the West from bold political moves & to force them to negotiate w/Moscow terms of its neutrality.

4. It cannot be ruled out that in case of the regime in Belarus collapsing and in absence of clear personnel alternative acceptable to Russia, Moscow will decide to intervene. But this is a scenario Moscow would very much like to avoid, and it will only do it as a last resort.

5. A military intervention by Russia would lead to the revolted society of Belarus turning against Russia (impeding integration w/RU), the necessity to suppress resistance and would lead to the Western sanctions against Moscow,therefore this is still not the most likely scenario.

6.Therefore, for the time being, Russia will probably try, with public and non-public signals, to stop the uncontrolled collapse of the regime, while probing for personal alternatives and their political consequences.