Ok, so let's follow this logic of the RG recruiting the majority of students this year, uncapped. Courses and universities close elsewhere. RG returns to lucrative international market in a few years. Less places now and less UK students now get to go to university.

Meanwhile, teaching workload increases in RGs. No new staff due to pandemic, at best HPLs creating increases precarity in the sector. No new support staff either, meaning the increased number of students is not matched by the necessary support.

There will be less time for research. Given potential closures of some universities, regional relationships are at risk and this would impact on leveling up agenda.

In addition, some students and communities will no longer have access to their regional university damaging longer term widening participation. This is an ecosystem.

The algorithm is a shambles, but the easy solution could have pretty disastrous consequences for the sector. I've seen some argue that this could increases Diversity in the sector. Not so much as increasing the poor Diversity within RG universities.

The longer term consequences are potentially worse for Diversity and participation.

A solution? Well it requires thought from across the sector and by people more experienced than I. Perhaps: Maintain the cap which protects the sector. Use teacher assessment (appeals will significantly destabalise the sector).

If universities have over recruited then they need to address that with the students.