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A thread from last October when I previously began buying #HZM.
For Araguaia, I think the securing of the debt facility for $325m / ~73% of upfront capex pushes fair value to the top of my quoted range - 20% of post-tax NPV of DFS.
Assuming Ni of $15k/t, that's $104.4m. 1/5 https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1187288008233570304
For Araguaia, I think the securing of the debt facility for $325m / ~73% of upfront capex pushes fair value to the top of my quoted range - 20% of post-tax NPV of DFS.
Assuming Ni of $15k/t, that's $104.4m. 1/5 https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1187288008233570304
= £79.3m, or 5.49p/s.
For Vermelho, the increasing interest in tier 1 nickel-cobalt projects for supplying the exponentially growing EV market (e.g. @elonmusk) also pushes fair value to the top of my quoted range - 7% of post-tax NPV of PFS.
Ni at $15k/t = $101.8m / £77.4m
2/5
For Vermelho, the increasing interest in tier 1 nickel-cobalt projects for supplying the exponentially growing EV market (e.g. @elonmusk) also pushes fair value to the top of my quoted range - 7% of post-tax NPV of PFS.
Ni at $15k/t = $101.8m / £77.4m
2/5
That equates to 5.35p/s.
Finally, net cash of £15m = 1.04p/s.
My current fair value for #HZM: £171.7m, or 11.9p/s.
Of course, I'm in agreement with the vast majority of industry commentators that Ni is set for a huge rally over the coming years.
I see it at $18k next year 3/5
Finally, net cash of £15m = 1.04p/s.
My current fair value for #HZM: £171.7m, or 11.9p/s.
Of course, I'm in agreement with the vast majority of industry commentators that Ni is set for a huge rally over the coming years.
I see it at $18k next year 3/5
With Ni at $18k my current TP for #HZM would be 17.8p (9.30p + 7.46p +1.04p).
Moreover there's the premium valuation rating to consider. Relative valuation analysis (esp. precedent transactions) suggests that a good few multiples of the 17.8p TP would be entirely reasonable, 4/5
Moreover there's the premium valuation rating to consider. Relative valuation analysis (esp. precedent transactions) suggests that a good few multiples of the 17.8p TP would be entirely reasonable, 4/5
...in the event of a hostile takeover. Given the widely acknowledged impending deficit in the Ni market (both FeNi (alloys) and NiCo(EVs)), such an outcome for #HZM's tier one assets is not only possible, but probable, in my own opinion.
Accordingly, I'm a steady buyer now.
5/5
Accordingly, I'm a steady buyer now.
5/5
