I'm tweeting this article again because I think it is so important. It shows that the maths in @OfQual's algorithm is fundamentally flawed. I suspected it was, because of the anomalous results, but my maths wasn't good enough to identify the flaws. http://thaines.com/post/alevels2020

The interactive visualisation attached to the article shows that the algorithm generates anomalously bad results, including spurious "U" grades, for high-value-added schools. Hit the "brilliant school" button to see what happens.
http://thaines.com/content/ALevels/vis/

It isn't possible to "fix" this error. It is a fatal design flaw.

On @BBCNews now, Bill Watkin unveils evidence that sixth form college results have been downgraded to below historical levels in every subject. This is consistent with the results shown in the interactive visualisation.

The algorithm is not fit for purpose. It is appalling that it was not subjected to expert independent review prior to being used to generate life-changing results for thousands of students. It is also appalling that it evidently wasn't adequately tested.

To be clear, the mathematical error works in both directions, so there are also students who have received significantly higher grades than they deserve.

The question is where we go from here. A level results are seriously compromised, and so too are the GCSE results scheduled for release on Thursday. But the only readily available alternative, CAGs, appear to be unacceptable to a Government obsessed with grade inflation.

Allowing individuals to appeal their results on the grounds that they don't reflect their ability undermines the standardisation process and will inevitably result in grade inflation unless other students are arbitrarily downgraded to compensate for upgrades.

So the government either has to drop its insistence that grade inflation must be avoided, or appeals against the grades awarded by the algorithm can't be allowed. I imagine this is currently the subject of fierce debate between the government and @OfQual.

If the government digs its heels in on grade inflation, thus making appeals against the grades awarded by the algo impossible, then the lack of an effective appeals process will be challenged in court. I don't think the government is wise to fight this, frankly.

it will have to back down on grade inflation sooner or later, and it would be far better for everyone concerned if it did it sooner.