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Something that is bugging me: I understand that journalists need the horse race to be tight to keep interest in the election. But, folks, this isn’t likely to be a close race for President. Three incumbent Presidents have lost re-election in the past century. All were to one /1
extent or another discredited (least of the three HW, most Hoover). The average margin of those races was 12%. In many ways this race is an analogue of 1980. A 12% Biden win would bring 5-9 Democrats along with him in the Senate. I’m open to being dissuaded but frankly I /2
don’t see there being a strong likelihood of this race tightening. Races with incumbents tend to be a referendum on the incumbent and there is no reason to believe that DJT can change that.
In order to persuade me I’m wrong, you will need to explain what Trump can do to /3
In order to persuade me I’m wrong, you will need to explain what Trump can do to /3
persuade white college educated women in the suburbs that either he has been successful or that Biden is too risky. His efforts in that direction have been utterly ham handed thus far.
And the hope of a v-shaped recovery disappeared with the resurgence of the virus in June /4
And the hope of a v-shaped recovery disappeared with the resurgence of the virus in June /4
and July. He might have fought to a standstill on the economy if they had brokered a deal before expanded UI expired. Instead his war on states and muni governments and the freaking post office while completely fumbling the virus and with it the economy says to me that there /5
exists a far better chance of Trump losing by 15 than being within the 3-5 points he needs to win a narrow EC victory.
