Thread by @DrewFBGAuctions, Alright, it’s time for a big ol’ #Auction thread! For those of [...]

Alright, it’s time for a big ol’ #Auction thread! For those of you drafting soon DON’T MISS THIS! I have some fantastic teaching points from a draft I did yesterday. These will help YOU in your upcoming drafts. Lots of lessons here - mostly from my mistakes!

Here we go...

1/

First, some background.

- $200 cap
- 14 teams
- All experts
- Start TEN positional players, no K or DEF - 1/2/3/1 & 3 flex (non QB)
- Last year we used K and D both - so this year there is a 28 player increase in starting lineups alone

2/

My goal was to draft for depth bc that worked for me last year, bc of possible Covid absences, and bc of the monstrous starting requirements of this 14 teamer.

I thought I made the proper adjustments in price fixing and money disbursement through my roster. I was wrong.

3/

For the record, here was my par sheet for the draft. I had a couple alternatives, but this was my goal:

QB1 - $3
RB1 - 42
RB2 - 19
WR1 - 40
WR2 - 30
WR3 - 20
WR4 - 15
TE1 - 5
Flx - 8, 6

Bench - 12 total (6 players)

4/

Lesson #1: I referenced this in my piece linked here, but there are usually a few deals right out of the gate. The market isn’t set. People don’t want to blow their money. In a veteran room the window is small, but it’s there. In home leagues? That...

5/ https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-mastering-auction-drafting-part-seven-inflection-points

Mastering the Auction, Part 7: Inflection Points

Learning the various inflection points in an auction draft

https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-mastering-auction-drafting-part-seven-inflection-points

...advantage can last a while, sometimes even half the draft if it’s a super green room. Yesterday, McCaffrey went for $59 as the first player. Big discount. By the end of six picks I knew something was happening. Barkley for $56.

6/

CEH and Henry both in the $40s. I didn’t want to pay big for a RB but I saw the opportunity. Took Zeke for $53 (11 more than budgeted, a significant amount). But Zeke went for $70 and $63 in the other two rooms. Big win there. But then I made a mistake.

7/

Mistake #1: I incorrectly assumed the deals were a result of it being early in the draft. Instead, these expert owners were also planning on drafting the same way I was. Not unusual, but how did I make this mistake?

8/

Mistake #2: I preach that usually when scarcity hits - or more dollars are chasing the same players (14 teams) - the dollars flow to the TOP of the draft. That’s true. But when you’re playing v experts? Poor to assume they’ll chase instead of marshaling resources.

9/

Mistake #3: Not reading the room! I preach this all the time. I won’t say I underestimated these guys - I definitely don’t! - just that I didn’t spend enough time thinking about how their ability would affect things. Poor read on the room! Silly mistake.

10/

#Auction lesson: No matter how experienced you are you will still make mistakes! Not spending enough time thinking macro about the effect of the lineup changes vis a vis the experts in the room was a PREPARATION problem. Work work work!

11/

So after spending on Zeke, I felt great to get Hill for $41, and Watson for $10. My plan was to then secure Howard, Cohen, or White as my RB2 for less than $10. That didn’t happen.
Next mistake...

12/

Mistake #4: With there being 116 position players starting (140 spots minus 24 QBs/TEs), I did not correctly factor how the room would spread the money down the draft board. So there *were* deals but I missed them waiting on the market to correct itself! Huge mistake.

13/

I should have noticed when things weren’t letting up that deals weren’t going to happen until it was $1 time. I kept waiting for the market to crater and it just didn’t happen. There was a critical point that I noticed and it turns out it was...not critical...

14/

I’m always on the lookout for when the draft is about to shift (you should be too!) and when TY Hilton went for $18 I thought that was the shift. “Prices are about to drop and I’m about to clean up”. To be honest friends, that’s where I LIVE in an auction.

15/

But these people are experts for a reason. Turns out Hilton was just a blip before prices shot right back up into the 30s. At that point I ended up having to pay up for my next two WRs because I had incorrectly read the room. The prices were fine, but not what I wanted.

16/

In the end I was pretty disappointed with my team bc of the holes in my starting lineup. However, after looking at rosters a couple things became very clear...

- Everyone has 2-4 holes in their lineup
- Nobody has a bench worth a damn
- My team looks like it’s top half

17/

So here’s what I took away...

- Preparation is the single biggest key to winning your #auctions
- Deals will happen early - bank on it
- It’s HARD to read a room online, and it’s not always easy to spot inflection points - you just have to keep working at it

18/

- Knowing your room is massively important to success
- Staying nimble is required - your thoughts are gonna be wrong! Don’t despair, reassess and move on!
- Don’t pass on deals in a room of veterans - there won’t be many

19/

I was pretty upset after the draft, and felt like I let all of you down w my performance. But today? I think:

1) I’m pretty happy w my team. That was a TOUGH room.
2) 14 teams and 140 players in lineups makes rosters feel weaker than they are.

20/

And if I’m a little more hungry now than before the draft that’s not a bad thing. It’ll make me grind harder to make myself better and bring you more actionable #auction advice. And watch out Blanda room, I’m coming in 2021!

Thanks for following!

21/21

Latest Threads Unrolled: