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Today, just under 95,000 hospital beds are occupied. 599 with Covid. 599.
Pre-Covid, English hospitals ran at 85% occupancy, so it should be ~ 111,000 beds occupied. They drove that number down to 50,000. Less than half. No wonder we had excess deaths. 60,000 were kicked out of hospital!
599 people are in hospital beds with Covid, but 16,000 hospital staff are self isolating from Covid. Make of that what you will.
Assuming 85% occupancy, NHS England has ~21,000 empty beds at any one time. Covid occupied beds peaked at 18,970. So even without the Nightingales and requisitioned private hospitals, the NHS could theoretically have absorbed the Covid wave.
So, assuming things get back to normal next year, we'll go back to 21,000 spare beds. BUT there are projections of 35,000 extra cancer deaths because of missed diagnoses. Now THAT will overwhelm the NHS. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53300784
