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How to find the next Nick Pope, why premium GK’s are a trap, and other insights into the most boring position in #FPL. [THREAD]
1/ Every season less than 50 points separates the #1 overall GK and the #10. That’s tighter than any other position in the game! In this thread we will look at some of the keys to discerning the difference.
2/ What’s the most valuable fantasy stat for a GK? Whatever your answer was, it’s wrong. There is no single fantasy stat that makes or breaks a GK. The best fantasy GK must have a good combination of (1) clean sheets, (2) saves, and (3) bonus points.
3/ 
CLEAN SHEETS
Clean sheets is important, but it's not all-important. Let’s look at Ederson as an example. In 18/19 he kept 20 CS and finished #2 overall among GK’s with 169 points. It was an amazing season, but…
CLEAN SHEETS Clean sheets is important, but it's not all-important. Let’s look at Ederson as an example. In 18/19 he kept 20 CS and finished #2 overall among GK’s with 169 points. It was an amazing season, but…
4/ CLEAN SHEETS (cont.)
… but in 19/20 Ederson won the golden glove with 16 CS and yet finished #9 overall among GK’s with 133 points. Why? Because he had a dismal amount of saves and bonus points (not to mention some card trouble).
CLEAN SHEETS (cont.) … but in 19/20 Ederson won the golden glove with 16 CS and yet finished #9 overall among GK’s with 133 points. Why? Because he had a dismal amount of saves and bonus points (not to mention some card trouble).
5/ CLEAN SHEETS (cont.)
If you want to rely on a GK like Ederson, you really need at least 18 CS for it to pay off. There’s only one or two options out there who have the potential to achieve that, and you’re going to have to pay a premium price to get them.
CLEAN SHEETS (cont.) If you want to rely on a GK like Ederson, you really need at least 18 CS for it to pay off. There’s only one or two options out there who have the potential to achieve that, and you’re going to have to pay a premium price to get them.
6/ CLEAN SHEETS (cont.)
But don’t disregard CS either! For example, David DeGea followed his legendary 17/18 season (18 CS, 172 points) with 7 CS in 18/19, collecting only 120 points despite a whopping 123 saves.
CLEAN SHEETS (cont.) But don’t disregard CS either! For example, David DeGea followed his legendary 17/18 season (18 CS, 172 points) with 7 CS in 18/19, collecting only 120 points despite a whopping 123 saves.
7/ CLEAN SHEETS (cont.)
Looking at the histories of top GK’s it seems like a minimum of 10 CS is the benchmark for a potential #1 GK. But even then you’ll need some help from other stats.
CLEAN SHEETS (cont.) Looking at the histories of top GK’s it seems like a minimum of 10 CS is the benchmark for a potential #1 GK. But even then you’ll need some help from other stats.
8/ 
SAVES
It’s time to talk about Tom Heaton. He became a top GK in 14/15 and 16/17 but only managed to keep 10 CS in both. How’d he do it? 127 saves and 142 saves. You get 1 point for every 3 saves in a game. It may not seem like much, but it adds up over a season.
SAVES It’s time to talk about Tom Heaton. He became a top GK in 14/15 and 16/17 but only managed to keep 10 CS in both. How’d he do it? 127 saves and 142 saves. You get 1 point for every 3 saves in a game. It may not seem like much, but it adds up over a season.
9/ SAVES (cont.)
You have to remember that the best GK’s in the history of FPL only averaged 4.5 ppg. We’re always hoping for those sexy 6+ point games, but you'll do just as well with a GK who faithfully gets 3-5 points every GW.
SAVES (cont.) You have to remember that the best GK’s in the history of FPL only averaged 4.5 ppg. We’re always hoping for those sexy 6+ point games, but you'll do just as well with a GK who faithfully gets 3-5 points every GW.
10/ 
BONUS
How does a GK get bonus points? By being on a team that can’t score. Ederson got 2 bonus points in 19/20 because City scored 102 goals. Pope got 23(!) because Burnley scored 43. The more 1-0 victories a team has, the more likely a GK is going to get the bonus.
BONUS How does a GK get bonus points? By being on a team that can’t score. Ederson got 2 bonus points in 19/20 because City scored 102 goals. Pope got 23(!) because Burnley scored 43. The more 1-0 victories a team has, the more likely a GK is going to get the bonus.
11/ BONUS (cont.)
In fact, let’s look what teams the highest bonus points earners played for in recent memory. Do you notice a pattern?
19/20 – Burnley
18/19 – Cardiff
17/18 – Burnley
16/17 – Burnley
15/16 – Arsenal, Stoke, Watford (tie)
14/15 – Burnley
BONUS (cont.) In fact, let’s look what teams the highest bonus points earners played for in recent memory. Do you notice a pattern?
19/20 – Burnley
18/19 – Cardiff
17/18 – Burnley
16/17 – Burnley
15/16 – Arsenal, Stoke, Watford (tie)
14/15 – Burnley
12/ BONUS (cont.)
For a position that already has a very low points ceiling, bonus points can be the difference between a #1 and a #10 GK. Your GK has a higher chance of getting bonus when he plays for a team that doesn't concede often, but also doesn't score much either.
BONUS (cont.) For a position that already has a very low points ceiling, bonus points can be the difference between a #1 and a #10 GK. Your GK has a higher chance of getting bonus when he plays for a team that doesn't concede often, but also doesn't score much either.
13/ 
PRICE
Let’s pretend Alisson (6.0m) has another monster season like his 176-point debut in 18/19. Should you get him? No. Premium GK's are a trap because every season there will be a budget GK for 1.0m-1.5m less that’s right up there with him.
PRICE Let’s pretend Alisson (6.0m) has another monster season like his 176-point debut in 18/19. Should you get him? No. Premium GK's are a trap because every season there will be a budget GK for 1.0m-1.5m less that’s right up there with him.
14/ PRICE
When deciding between GK’s, 1.0m might buy you 10-30 points at the most. That 1.0m could buy you so much more at other positions. Getting the highest-scoring GK is no longer the objective if he costs too much. You want the highest-scoring *budget* GK.
PRICE When deciding between GK’s, 1.0m might buy you 10-30 points at the most. That 1.0m could buy you so much more at other positions. Getting the highest-scoring GK is no longer the objective if he costs too much. You want the highest-scoring *budget* GK.
15/ 
APPLICATION
Buy a budget GK (4.5m-5.0m) with the potential for no less than 10 CS, no less than 100 saves, who plays for a top-half or mid-table team that struggles to score goals. The more CS, the less dependent you are on saves and bonus. But you need all three.
APPLICATION Buy a budget GK (4.5m-5.0m) with the potential for no less than 10 CS, no less than 100 saves, who plays for a top-half or mid-table team that struggles to score goals. The more CS, the less dependent you are on saves and bonus. But you need all three.
The End
