My kid is deaf. He has an associated language disorder. He's brighter than I am. He works harder than I do. He's surmounted every barrier to learning thrown at him so far.

He's a GCSE student. On Thursday, Ofqual are going to kneecap his life chances. Here's how:

1/

J started life in mainstream primary school. Staff were great - but they were spread way too thin, & the local authority refused to give them the resources they needed.

By the time he left mainstream, J was 3-4 years behind his hearing peers, & things looked desperate

2/

After a fight, we got J into a special school for the deaf. Best booby prize ever. The school is life-changingly awesome - see here for more: https://www.channel4.com/programmes/extraordinary-teens/on-demand/62895-002

That 3-4 year attainment gap? It's gone. J & the school eliminated it. But now, Ofqual are on the scene

3/

Ofqual's model machines uneven inputs into a consistently-distributed curve. A curve that meets the needs of the system.

And when you machine something, you end up creating cast-off swarf.

J & his year group of deaf pupils are now that swarf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swarf 

4/

There are 2 key factors that will kneecap J & his mates.

1: The Ofqual GCSE grade algo uses prior attainment at the end of primary school (KS2) as an input

2: The algo penalises schools that do well in closing prior attainment gaps - like J's 3-4 year learning gap upthread

5/

Kids at J's school come from dozens of different schools & LAs. Most of these kids were grievously, repeatedly, & avoidably failed at primary.

The school KS2 data tells you nothing useful about these pupils' potential. All it tells you is that England's SEND system is broken

6/

There's a particularly cruel irony here. These kids have already been hit once at primary. By bringing aggregate KS2 data into the algo mix, Ofqual have effectively double-tapped them - hard-wiring the SEND system's failings into their grade calculations

7/

Secondly, the GCSE algo's use of prior attainment doesn't incorporate the secondary school's value-added.

The algo doesn't care that J & the school eliminated his 3-4 year learning gap. It doesn't care that some pupils arrive nearly-broken in Y10. It doesn't care about SEN

8/

If you want a detailed but readable account of how Ofqual's algo penalises precisely those schools & colleges who do best at closing prior attainment gaps, I'd recommend this, from @gconstantinides https://twitter.com/gconstantinides/status/1295016034878001159?s=20

9/

So where does that leave J? Special schools are usually small, but his cohort is too big to be spared the Ofqual model. What he'll get in English, Maths, & many other subjects will be determined by a machine whose creators simply ignored the fact that kids like him exist...

10/

...and there's no doubt that this is a sin of commission, not omission. Many SEND parents & special schools fed into Ofqual's consultation (here's a bit of my submission).

We expressed these concerns, and we were roundly ignored

11/

I don't know J's teacher-assessed CAGs or ranks yet.

From mocks & reports, I expect school submitted a grade 4 or 5 for GCSE English. That's a mammoth achievement, given he was 3-4 years behind in 2015!

But the Ofqual algo is likely to knock him down below 4

12/

I trust his teachers' judgement. Not just because they rock - but because standardised speech & language therapy assessments (CELF-4, TROG-2, BPVS-II) show J now has age-appropriate receptive & expressive language.

The Ofqual algo - standardised on bullshit - won't care

13/

J wants to go to university. He won't be doing that without a decent English GCSE grade. And his options narrow very sharply for apprenticeships & for many jobs too.

There are routes around this, but they chew up time he doesn't have - he's already been failed for years

14/

J was on track for 7s, 8s & 9s in some subjects. He's a better historian now than I was at 16 (paging @zoesqwilliams ). Even if the English gets sorted, Ofqual's model will machine away his high grades too - narrowing his choice of unis & courses

15/

I know that J is more than the grades he's given. Ofqual can't take away the knowledge & skills that his amazing school has given him. Learning has brought our family together - I wrote this anonymously in 2017, when J's elder brother took his GCSEs https://notsoordinarydiary.wordpress.com/2017/06/27/a-letter-of-thanks/

16/

But what Ofqual will do is take away J's self-belief.

Ofqual will take away the hard-won knowledge that J counts for something as a deaf young man in a hearing world.

Ofqual will chew up resources that his parents & his school can't spare without something vital slipping

17/

I'm a SEND parent. This isn't my first rodeo. I've spent years removing barriers to learning that well-paid, high-handed, unaccountable bureaucrats have thrown in J's way.

This is just another barrier in a long, long line of them. And it needs to be smashed

/end