After historic protests, the atmosphere in Minsk and nearly all Belarusian cities is deservedly euphoric.
But as someone who watched the Maidan-protests and Ukraine closely, I say lets not get carried away too early. The despot still controls the security forces. /1

There were numerous comparisons of the similarities & differences of the Maidan & what’s happening in Belarus by some of the smart twiteratis. I just want to add that in Kyiv we witnessed different waves of repressions and strong protests, culminating in a bloodbath in Feb ‘14 2/

Call me a pessimist but with Lukashenka still in control of the large security apparatus and Russia today signaling its readiness to provide “support”, we might (!) see another, different wave of violent crackdown before the regime finally collapses. 3/

The full absence of any police in the past days is a tactical decision - probably caused by the large amount of strikes of workers - of a bealeagered regime that knows nothing other than the language of force. 4/

Despite several cracks in the system and first defections, we haven’t seen large parts of the armed forces or security apparatus (individuals yes, entire units no). Even though a Tiananmen scenario is extremely unlikely, Batka will probably not go voluntarily... end/