Mid of March 2020.

Countries went into lockdowns to mitigate the harm of the Covid acpocalypse which otherwise leads to millions of death and collapse all health systems around the globe.

After 5 month its time to take a (indermidiate) conclusion.

Thread (long).
1/30
2/30
This thread will involve many of my own analysis as well as some helpful tweets which got my mind sorted.

Motivation to create this thread is to "bundle" some useful information as tweets usually have just a half-time of max. 30 min
3/30
German Dr. Wolfgang @wodarg in March:
"Without the new PCR test we probably wouldn't even recgonise what is going on".

As I was sceptic about this statement I've started my own analysis.
First attempt was looking at the bad "flu" year 2018 in Europe. https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1281131174920945664?s=19
4/30
Given SARS-COV2 is a "novel" virus I did some deep dive into "all cause vs. population growth vs. life expantacy". https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1283337180585369601?s=19
5/30
I've been watching hundrets of mortality curves and got more and more sceptic in terms of "optical illusions", especially year 2019.

In some countries (e.g. Sweden) you can notice a remarkable "drop" 2019.
I've done some exercises: https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1283659349735473155?s=19
6/30
I was actually not the first one who was looking into this.
@cwhope working paper "Impact of flu intensity in Europe 2018"
@EffectsFacts and @Humble_Analysis have some very interesting graphs as well
@FatEmperor's video is included as well 👇 https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1290996833259606017?s=20
7/30
Why all those "all cause" mortality analysis insted of creating some more fancy covid charts?

To be honest, I am sceptic about all those covid numbers.

2 Reasons.
8/30

1. PCR Test
Concerns in regards to "expresiveness" have become louder for the last few weeks.
Watch out for tweets from @carlheneghan https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1292168008488685568?s=199
9/30
A positive SARS-Cov2 PCR test result does not correlate to a certain disease!

This is a main reason data is quite "blurred". (my second reason)

Thread with > 50 tweets in regards to data quality https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1284919954643591168?s=19
10/30
From my view-point the only way to go in terms of "death impact comparison" is All Cause.

Here is why.
Comparison Covid vs. All Cause https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1292771723650256898?s=19
11/30
All Cause comparison 2020 vs. baseline 2010-2018

https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1290991737633112064?s=19

P.S.
If you are still there:
Lets than jump to March again.

Why are there those "sharp spikes" at mortality curves during the peak in April (Europe, USA)?

Covid undercounted or collatral damages?
12/30
May I raise a different question instead?

Why do we not see a huge spike in Sweden even ~ 100k death have been predicted by Imperial College?

Everything you need to know from Sweden you'll find here 👇

https://twitter.com/HaraldofW/status/1292805370616975363?s=19
13/30
There is more than "just" Sweden.
Not sure if we can trust data from China or Cambodia but:

Uruguay maybe "Sweden in South America".

Here is a detailled thread comparing many "parameters" for different countries in South America. https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1290631815858970624?s=19
14/30
Prof. John Ioannidis in regards to Lockdowns: https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1288193353629282306?s=19
15/30
Also, Prof. Johann Giesecke was very sceptic about Lockdowns from the beginning: https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1292559786748321794?s=19
16/30
There are already some studies available which are highligthing more or less the limited efficiency different lockdown measures

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1285854066690719744?s=19 https://twitter.com/SHomburg/status/1291987110765957121?s=19
17/30
Some interesting correlations between lockdown and death toll (and much more) https://twitter.com/TTBikeFit/status/1294811075293085696?s=19
18/30
Okay, so a couple of countries have had "luck" in this pandemic until now but are now facing a "second wave".

Can we look a bit into the flu?

I know:
Fact: Covid ≠ Flu.
Conspiracy: Flu = Covid.

Still, what happenend in Australia 2019? https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1288718981994512384?s=20
19/30
Covid2020 vs. Flu 2018:

gompertz
saisonality
second waves concerns and more https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1294393266654318592?s=19
20/30
Influenza worldwide:
#flattenthecurve https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1294906111406071808?s=19
21/30
ICU's are not Covid-crowed anymore even "cases" are going up in Europe.
https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1290255977661575168?s=19
22/30
. @fatemperor is calling the current situation #casedemic and you'll see here why that is true

https://twitter.com/plaforscience/status/1294301319
23/30
Because SARS-COV2 is really "novel" our immune system can not respond to it?

Have a look at heaps of T Cell studies (most yet to be peer-reviewed) as well as this thread: https://twitter.com/mgmgomes1/status/1291162360657453056?s=19
24/30
Our immune system is actually quite smart: https://twitter.com/FrankfurtZack/status/1294750066213822464?s=19
25/30
I really hope we can get rid of the "PCR focussed" kind of testing, this new test sounds promising.

We need to protect eldery for sure.

But why don't we mass tests immune sytsem status as a regular checkup, maybe even independent from Covid? https://twitter.com/daniellevitt22/status/1295010707398778880?s=19
26/30
Why am I writing this bloody thread?

Simple answer:

I am very upset in regards to all that cruelty going on with our kids

https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1294344622152593410?s=19
27/30
I really hope these doctors can achieve something https://twitter.com/jonkirbysthlm/status/1294556980477079552?s=19
28/30
"But you are just a random anonymous twitter guy"

True, but all my mentioned tweets within this thread have in sum more than half a million views and I have not received evdm one single claim.

Still, anonymous and understand any of your concers very well.
29/30
thanks to
@FatEmperor
@MLevitt_NP2013
@carlheneghan
@HaraldofW
@wodarg
@FrankfurtZack
@holmenkollin
@maestro_rayo

+ many many more

and many many more!!
30/30
The End.

https://twitter.com/DaFeid/status/1293588433663930370?s=19
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