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1/ We need to take a more in depth look at the Northern Ireland Covid figures to try and get an understanding of and also debunk the media/health authority narrative that NI is 'is currently facing one of the most dangerous points of the pandemic'
2/ In NI at the height of the 'pandemic' during April we were testing an average of 600 people per day, all Pillar 1 (hospital). Positives cases per day of those tested averaged around 25%.
3/ In May, testing started to increase with Pillar 1 rising to an average of around 1200 per day and that number has remained fairly constant up until today. Pillar 2 testing was also introduced on 29th April and started with 116 tests reaching a max of 4285 tests on 11th August
4/ To date in NI we have tested 176998 individuals, positive cases number 6391. You might be surprised to hear that the average percentage overall of positive cases is a rather low 3.61%. This number is falling with every passing day.
5/ Since the beginning of June, despite the slow ramp up of testing (massive ramp up in August), the daily percentage of people found positive out of each day's total of individual tests averages in and around 1%.
6/ With the massive ramp up of testing in August, we are finding a lot more cases. However, the daily average percentage of those found positive remains in and around 1%. The increased number of cases is being used (unjustifiably) to frighten people.
7/ Is the ramping up of fear justified? Not at all. Unless the percentage daily positive average really starts to rise, increased case numbers mean nothing. As someone once said, conduct more IQ tests and you will find more stupid people.
8/ What about hospitalisation? Very low since June. Here is the data for All Trusts (and the individual 5 trusts). Small uptick to Northern Trust but it's an increase so low it creates a 7 day rolling average of 1. These are VERY small numbers we are dealing with here.
9/ What about ICU? Been falling steadily since June, we even had zero for a while in July, it's been pretty constant at 2 throughout August (currently at 1). All NI hospitals currently have a total of 7 positive patients admitted.
10/ What does all of the above tell us? Is Northern Ireland is currently in a bad place? I don't believe so, in fact I think it reinforces the trend in data that has been occurring as far back as June with very little change despite a massive increase in testing.
11/ Hospital admissions remain incredibly low, ICU usage is also very low, deaths are thankfully very few and far between and there is no sign that any of this is changing.
12/ Isn't it time our media and health authorities started to reflect this news instead of scaring half of our citizens to death with tales of increased 'cases'?
