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A short thread on the significance on the establishment of diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel. My take: It’s not meaningless, but neither is it a transformative, landmark event. Here’s my reasoning:
First, the UAE and Israel have been collaborating in various ways for a long time, driven mostly by opposition to Iran. Diplomatic recognition is a nice symbolic gesture, but doesn’t alter that reality very much.
Second, apart from lip-service, most Arab governments abandoned the Palestinian cause awhile ago and have not been willing to do much to push a 2 state solution. Antipathy to Iran and to movements like Hamas plays a role here too. So what the UAE has done is not a sea-change.
Third, anyone who thinks the agmt. to forego annexation ends the Israeli right’s commitment to a Greater Israel is deluding themselves. What matters are facts on the ground, not annexation per se. Will the UAE break relations if annexation occurs in a few years? Doubt it.
Fourth, this situation shows that power politics > justice. Israel still has firm backing from the US; Arab elites care more about themselves than about the Pals, the EU is useless, Russia/China don’t give 2 hoots about I-P, and Iran is too weak to mount effective opposition.
That situation doesn't surprise me, but let's bear it in mind the next time US officials from either major party start waxing eloquent about the importance of "values" or "moral principles" in shaping US foreign policy.
Bottom line: the road to one state just got a fresh coat of asphalt, and a “South Africa-like struggle for equal voting rights” (to use Ehud Olmert’s phrase) looms on the horizon. But that was already true 2 weeks ago. The deal isn't irrelevant, but it doesn't change that much.
