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Autocrats fall and democracies emerge in many different ways. No one model. Splits in ancien regime usually critical. So too are peaceful mass protests. External actors can play negative and positive roles. For details, see https://www.amazon.com/Transitions-Democracy-Comparative-Kathryn-Stoner/dp/1421408147 THREAD 1/
This edited volume w/ @kath_stoner includes cases of democratic breakthrough -- Poland, Serbia, Ukraine, South Africa -- and cases of failure -- Algeria, Iran, China, Azerbaijan. Have to study both. 2/
On the role of external actors in Ukraine 2004, check out "Ukraine Imports Democracy: External Influences on the Orange Revolution." https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/ukraine-imports-democracy-external-influences-orange-revolution 3/
On role of external actors in Ukraine in 2013-2014, check out chapter 23 of From Cold War to Hot Peace. https://www.amazon.com/Cold-War-Hot-Peace-Ambassador/dp/0544716248 4/
On the causes of democratic breakthrough in Serbia 2000, Georgia 2003 and Ukraine 2004, read Transitions from Postcommunism https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/transitions-from-postcommunism/ 5/
This piece by Bunce and Wolchik is excellent: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646191?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents. So is their book: https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/defeating-authoritarian-leaders-postcommunist-countries?format=PB 6/
Although older, see also this book. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/democracy-and-authoritarianism-in-the-postcommunist-world/ACCA86A5673975E7FDA40ECB6899C923 7/
This volume includes a chapter by me on international factors helping and blocking democratic breakthroughs. 8/
And a chapter on #Belraus by my former colleague and friend, Vitali Silitski. How I wish Vitali were alive today to see what his fellow Belarusians are doing right now. 9/ END THREAD
