Read on Twitter
Lots of nonsense being spewed on the social about these P6 syndicates and while I do not have the answers, I will let the Costco margaritas spew a few thoughts this afternoon.
There was 332k in new money bet into P6 of which 65k was via the rainbow winner which means there were approximately 133k bets (outside of their bet) chasing a 102k jackpot.
There were 262440 total possible combinations across the sequence.
There were 262440 total possible combinations across the sequence.
There is a ton of rebate jealousy on this syndicate but regardless of the kickback, with the 15% being sliced into the rainbow pool this is a “bad bet” at any rebate (with no regular carryover) UNLESS you hit the jackpot.
Assuming this group do not have a view into to the pools themselves (and let's just hope they do not), then each of those 262k combinations is assigned a mathematical value to 1) hit and 2) to be covered against the 133k combinations placed by other bettors.
At a $2 base, most “regular bettors” will repeatedly cover the same combinations on their $30/$40 AB/A/AB/A/AB/AB type tickets.
If I had to guess this group probably spent 10k on single ticket combinations with the highest mathematical probability of hitting but where their model is at least not 100% sure it will be covered by another bettor.
The remainder of the money is bet trying to cover all the high probability combinations where they expect to have others with the same ticket.
This is where you are seeing the $50 P6 tickets because if it chalks out and pays $2000 then at least it gives them a shot at break even with rebate.
End result is they spent 55k on say 5k combinations (many multiple times) that gives them a 80% chance of hitting the P6 but with someone else with a goal of breakeven. Maybe a 10% chance of hitting the jackpot as solo winner against another 5k combinations.
Then a 10% chance of no winner and a bunch of consolations (net loss). Model spits the above out as a long term winner. If you do not like the above theory then blame it out on the Kirkland tequila. Swope out.
