Mini-thread: What's Lukashenka's game? Why is he clutching at straws, mobilizing tractors, & ordering military exercises next to Lithuania?

Here are few possibilities:
1. He is stalling while arranging his safe passage out of Belarus and hiding his assets. /1

2. He is forcing a negotiated transition rather than outright replacement. Probably siloviki play a role here.

3. He hopes to provoke or at least simulate conflict with NATO that will obligate Russia to respond.

4. He hopes the opposition will fall to internal divisions. /2

5. He has poor intelligence and persistently misreads everything, domestic and foreign.

6. He is waiting for his book/tv/Netflix deal.

7. He is deranged (not mutually exclusive with any of the above).

Have I missed anything? /3