Florida: almost 400,000 #SARSCoV2 “cases” (positive tests) in the last six but the hospitals are emptier than they were on July 5, and #Covid hospitalizations are down 40% since peak...

Under 6,000 deaths reported over that six-week span, for a reported case fatality ratio of 1.5% and a true infection fatality ratio likely somewhere in the 0.1% to 0.2% range (1 in 500 to 1 in 1,000). Deaths are almost sure to trend down by the end of August, if not before...

And with 570,000 reported positive tests, Florida probably has had 4 million to 10 million infections (tough to know for sure because it’s hard to know the extent of double-counted tests), which in a state of 20 million spells herd immunity at the high end and maybe at the low...