1.
Lets do some analysis on Pak-Saudi relations & the options that Saudis & Pakistanis have...
I only see Saudi & Irani lobbies doing disgusting propaganda on the subject & there is no mature voice on this crisis.
Pak FO is dead & COAS have to rush to KSA for damage control.
2.
Trump had recently said that Saudis wont last a week without US help but they have to pay for it....!
He is right for once....if anything is holding back Iranians & Houthis from over running KSA , it is the fear of a US retaliation for now.
But US protection is expensive!!
3.
KSA is heading for bankruptcy. They are digging into their strategic reserves to survive now. Their oil income has crashed, their Hajj/Umra economy is destroyed. There is NO visible cash flow into the economy to revive it.
And Trump is insisting to be paid $ billions in cash
4.
Historically, Pakistan has always been the "economical" alternate to US protection of Saudi Arabia.
Saudis do NOT trust any other Arab or non Arab Muslim army to be present in their Kingdom for their security except Pak
Pakistanis are considered humble & respectful loyalists
5.
So, historically, if Saudis have been helping Pakistan economically, they have been receiving the security guarantee & even nuclear umbrella from Pakistan.
Saudi military exercises amusingly always end with Pakistan coming to their aid with its powerful army & the "bomb"..:)
6.
So, the fact is that Saudis owe Pakistan nothing. few billion dollars occasionally, free oil (which is free to Saudis too) or jobs to a million or so middle & lower class workers are nothing compared to the ultimate Security umbrella & nuclear protection that Pak offers them..
7.
While Saudis treat ordinary Pakistanis with arrogance & contempt, they truly fear & respect Pakistan armed forces. General Raheel was invited to lead the Saudi proposed military bloc for a reason..
If not for Pak army, entire Saudi south would have fallen to Houthis by now.
8.
Historically, all elder first generation Saudi Kings have been giving incredible respect & support to the Pakistani state for a reason...they knew their own security depends upon Pakistan. Many Kings/princes trusted only Pakistanis as personal guards, doctors & family staff.
9.
But MBS is diametrically opposite to the earlier Saudi rulers.
He is young, immature, rash & even dangerous for his own Saud family. He has been brought up by a Jewish mother & is extremely close to Israel.
He is dangerously ambitious to be a king for next 50 years!!
10.
So what MBS has done is that he has destroyed the entire traditions & the status quo within the Saudi society very violently. He has gone to war against his own uncles, cousins & family & is facing resistance.
That has made him very insecure even within his own house.
11.
For protection & support, MBS has fully gone to the Israeli camp & is being controlled by Kushner on all policy matters.
Iranian threat & US protection, infighting within the house of Saud & the desire to become the next King.... who else can support him except Israel??
12.
So now, Pakistan-Saudi relations have entered uncharted waters. MBS is unpredictable & does not respect traditions. He is controlled by Jared Kushner.
So, the time tested mutually beneficial relationship between Pakistan & KSA is now under stress & will be redefined.
13.
Israel has given guarantee to MBS that his future Kingdom will be protected by Israel. An Israeli garrison is being built in northwest KSA, Neom!
For the first time in Saudi history, Riyadh feels that it does not need Pakistan for its security.
This is huge shift!!
14.
But both Saudis & Israelis do not want Pakistan to become hostile as well. Any Pakistani-Turkish-Irani military bloc would be a nightmare for both KSA & Israel.
So, while MBS can growl & frown on Pakistan, he is also careful not to antagonize the powerful Pak army.
15.
Forget the diplomatic bull shit being churned out by the press departments of both countries about brotherly relations, fact is that relations have soured over many reasons but neither the MBS nor the Pak army wants to antagonize each other openly at this stage.
16.
If MBS starts to throw out Pakistanis from the kingdom, then that would mean that all Saudi leverage on Pakistan is gone...and Islamabad & GHQ would be free to pursue Turkish bloc & abandon the security of the house of Saud, though Hijaz would remain a priority always.
17.
Pakistan does NOT stand on weaker grounds against Saudis.
Understand their mindset....Saudis respect Pak army & its military prowess. All sensible Saudis want to keep Pakistan on their side. Anything otherwise is a Saudi nightmare when they are surrounded by hostile Shias.
18.
This is one moment in history when Pakistan can really hard bargain with MBS. He is alone & isolated in the Muslim world. He is being hunted by his own family. His only friends are Israelis who can throw him under the bus anytime..
He cannot afford to make Pak his enemy...
19.
I always see a sheepish, slavish & docile attitude within Pak foreign office especially when dealing with Saudis.
SMQ has been a disaster par excellence....he has strained Pak-Saudi relations without gaining any strategic advantage. In fact, MBS has bullied Pak ever since..
20.
I hope Pakistan army leadership understands what I have written above & deal with MBS firmly & strongly with dignity & protect Pakistan's interests.
History of past warmth & relationship has been totally altered ever since this young rash prince has taken over.
Note it!
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