I am back from camping, so here is a thread for yall!

The Forgotten WR- Mike Williams

Mike Williams is a player almost everyone has forgotten about. He is going as the WR53 (Round 13 of SF drafts) according to DLF.

That is super low for a WR that improved from his 2018 season to his 2019 season even though he scored fewer fantasy points.

One feather in Mike Williams hat is he was the #8 WR in air yards, which Air Yards is one of the better-correlated stats to fantasy points year to year. One issue with Williams is he is going from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor/Herbert, but I will get into that later.

Mike Williams was the sneakiest 1000 yard WR last year and played 15 games.

Williams had 49 receptions and 1000 yard receiving with only 2 TDs on the season. (the first TD came in week 14). Back in 2018, Williams had a crazy 10 TD season on 43 receptions and only 664 yards.

Williams 2019 TDs/Targets= 2.22%
Williams 2018 TDs/Targets= 15.15%

Williams had a 13% difference in TD rate from 2018 to 2019. Also, Williams had over 300 more receiving yards and increased his yards per target by 1 yard in 2019 compared to 2018.

Williams was on the field more in 2019 and was very close to the same Fantasy Points/ game between the 2 seasons.

2018 FPTs/game= 11.1
2019 FPTs/game= 10.8

Williams only had 0.3 Fantasy points per game less in 2019 vs 2018 with 8 fewer TDs.

If Williams would have scored TDs at the rate between his 2019 and 2018 TD rate (8.69% TD Rate), Williams would have scored 6 more TDs in 2019, which would have put him at WR 32 in PPG on the season well above his current ADP of WR52.

Now let's talk about the QB situation. One thing that sucks about the Chargers situation for fantasy football is we have not seen anyone on the Chargers perform without Rivers on the field, but I believe Williams can be a productive flex WR in 2019 with Tyrod and Herbert.

Also, Herbert will take over for the Chargers at some point this season, and I see Herbert and Williams creating a deep ball connection because of Herbert's arm. Another reason I really like Mike Williams is his outlook beyond 2020.

The Chargers already accepted Williams 2021 team option, and we know his QB in 2021 will be a strong arm QB in Justin Herbert. One other note is Keenan Allen's contract is up after 2020, so that could lead to more opportunities for Mike Williams in 2021 if Allen isn't signed.

For backup WRs, we are looking for upside plays as well as players who can fill in as a flex when needed. Williams fits both of those categories. Make sure to go snatch him up everywhere! Also, Williams has been traded for early 2020 3rd and mid-2020 2nd. I want Williams in both!