Read on Twitter
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@realDonaldTrump said he's preventing the USPS from delivering mail in ballots for the election
@taylorswift13 sounded the alarm about the election in a tweet that got 600k likes
In a twist that shocked precisely no one, neither has a clue what they're taking about
A thread
@realDonaldTrump said he's preventing the USPS from delivering mail in ballots for the election
@taylorswift13 sounded the alarm about the election in a tweet that got 600k likes
In a twist that shocked precisely no one, neither has a clue what they're taking about
A thread
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If you want to understand what's going on you need to understand how information is used by people. I have included a helpful diagram so you can see how people are using the information available with respect to USPS:
If you want to understand what's going on you need to understand how information is used by people. I have included a helpful diagram so you can see how people are using the information available with respect to USPS:
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Right now we're in the "putting together the pieces of a puzzle that doesn't exist" phase of the information cycle. The only way out is to lay out the theory, and then show the mistakes that were made in getting there, and the bits of information that were missed. Let's begin.
Right now we're in the "putting together the pieces of a puzzle that doesn't exist" phase of the information cycle. The only way out is to lay out the theory, and then show the mistakes that were made in getting there, and the bits of information that were missed. Let's begin.
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The conspiracy theories all say Trump is withholding money from, or dismantling USPS to prevent mail in balloting for the election.
Specific theories range from "not a random play" to "conspiracy and a RICO violation" (RICO is a law used to prosecute organized crime)
The conspiracy theories all say Trump is withholding money from, or dismantling USPS to prevent mail in balloting for the election.
Specific theories range from "not a random play" to "conspiracy and a RICO violation" (RICO is a law used to prosecute organized crime)
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As things developed people pointed out a number of mail sorting machines were either being moved or taken apart. This was covered breathlessly by the press with the obvious implication: Trump was hobbling USPS!
As things developed people pointed out a number of mail sorting machines were either being moved or taken apart. This was covered breathlessly by the press with the obvious implication: Trump was hobbling USPS!
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In addition to the voting machines, there were pictures of mail boxes being removed which asses to the paranoia:
In addition to the voting machines, there were pictures of mail boxes being removed which asses to the paranoia:
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The only problem is, there is no conspiracy.
Let's go through it bit by bit. First let's start with Trumps claim, is he actually able to defund the post office and prevent them from delivering the mail in ballots?
The only problem is, there is no conspiracy.
Let's go through it bit by bit. First let's start with Trumps claim, is he actually able to defund the post office and prevent them from delivering the mail in ballots?
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First off the money that Trump was threatening to withhold was not for the election. It was to cover expected shortfalls dealing with Covid as well as past debts from increased competition with Fed-ex, Amazon, and UPS. https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/07/bipartisan-senate-bill-would-provide-25-billion-postal-service/166652/
First off the money that Trump was threatening to withhold was not for the election. It was to cover expected shortfalls dealing with Covid as well as past debts from increased competition with Fed-ex, Amazon, and UPS. https://www.govexec.com/management/2020/07/bipartisan-senate-bill-would-provide-25-billion-postal-service/166652/
9/ According to the report linked here, USPS has liquidity to last until August 21.
There is nothing that Trump can do to bankrupt the postal service prior to the election, and he does not have executive authority to prevent them from delivering mail.
https://about.usps.com/what/financials/financial-conditions-results-reports/fy2020-q3.pdf
There is nothing that Trump can do to bankrupt the postal service prior to the election, and he does not have executive authority to prevent them from delivering mail.
https://about.usps.com/what/financials/financial-conditions-results-reports/fy2020-q3.pdf
10/ Long and short, it does not matter what trump thinks, he can't stop USPS.
What about the claim that while they USPS can last until August, witholding the money prevents them from doing their job during the election and handling all that extra election mail?
What about the claim that while they USPS can last until August, witholding the money prevents them from doing their job during the election and handling all that extra election mail?
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The USPS handles about 140 Billion bits of mail annually. If every registered voter voted by mail that is150 million bits of mail. That's a rounding Error. The week before Christmas each year USPS handles 3 billion bits of mail. an election would not even make them sweat.
The USPS handles about 140 Billion bits of mail annually. If every registered voter voted by mail that is150 million bits of mail. That's a rounding Error. The week before Christmas each year USPS handles 3 billion bits of mail. an election would not even make them sweat.
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USPS is huge, the election might seem big to us, but to USPS it's a small even compared to the week before Christmas.
Well what about the mail boxes?
USPS is huge, the election might seem big to us, but to USPS it's a small even compared to the week before Christmas.
Well what about the mail boxes?
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USPS (link included) says the removal of mailboxes was about replacing older boxes or moving underutilized boxes. According to the inspector general they removed 14.000 boxes in the 5 years before Trump took office. This is typical maintenance
https://katu.com/news/local/photo-about-mailboxes-goes-viral-but-usps-says-it-replacing-old-ones
USPS (link included) says the removal of mailboxes was about replacing older boxes or moving underutilized boxes. According to the inspector general they removed 14.000 boxes in the 5 years before Trump took office. This is typical maintenance
https://katu.com/news/local/photo-about-mailboxes-goes-viral-but-usps-says-it-replacing-old-ones
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Well what about the sorting machines. Yes, they moved 19 of they can sort 35,000 pieces of mail per hour. If they were run 24 hours a day (they aren't) they could sort 15 million bits of mail in a day. That's drop in the bucket of the 500 million pieces they do each day...
Well what about the sorting machines. Yes, they moved 19 of they can sort 35,000 pieces of mail per hour. If they were run 24 hours a day (they aren't) they could sort 15 million bits of mail in a day. That's drop in the bucket of the 500 million pieces they do each day...
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USPS has a ton of these machines Hundreds if not thousands. For the most part, most of them rarely run full capacity for days on end. According to this internal letter, many of them are being moved or taken out of commission for efficiency reasons.
https://www.21cpw.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/mail-processing-equipment-reduction_6-17-2020.pdf
USPS has a ton of these machines Hundreds if not thousands. For the most part, most of them rarely run full capacity for days on end. According to this internal letter, many of them are being moved or taken out of commission for efficiency reasons.
https://www.21cpw.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/mail-processing-equipment-reduction_6-17-2020.pdf
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So, the mail sorting and the boxes are both part of plans that the USPS already had in place to deal with cost cutting measures as they face financial pressure from competition with UPS and Fed-ex.
So, the mail sorting and the boxes are both part of plans that the USPS already had in place to deal with cost cutting measures as they face financial pressure from competition with UPS and Fed-ex.
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Isn't the guy running the USPS a Trump supporter?
Yes, that's Louis Dejoy.However the plans that the USPS had, which we talked about, were created and set out in a 5 year plane that was put in place before Dejoy was hired. That plan is here:
https://about.usps.com/strategic-planning/five-year-strategic-plan-2020-2024.pdf#page=25
Isn't the guy running the USPS a Trump supporter?
Yes, that's Louis Dejoy.However the plans that the USPS had, which we talked about, were created and set out in a 5 year plane that was put in place before Dejoy was hired. That plan is here:
https://about.usps.com/strategic-planning/five-year-strategic-plan-2020-2024.pdf#page=25
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Ultimately whats going on here is people are taking little slices of what they see, and cutting them up like a movie being edited and creating the story they want to see.
This is what happens when we don't use proper and rigorous methods of investigation. Now, that isn't....
Ultimately whats going on here is people are taking little slices of what they see, and cutting them up like a movie being edited and creating the story they want to see.
This is what happens when we don't use proper and rigorous methods of investigation. Now, that isn't....
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To say that something else couldn't happen. Of course something could. But, of what has happened so far, this really is just people taking unrelated events and turning them into a story that doesn't exist.
To say that something else couldn't happen. Of course something could. But, of what has happened so far, this really is just people taking unrelated events and turning them into a story that doesn't exist.
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For further information please have a read here, where nick Harper has an excellent piece on this. Much of what I posted here came from this so I want to make sure he gets credit. https://medium.com/@nharpermn/stop-panicking-about-the-post-office-8bcd689b9601
For further information please have a read here, where nick Harper has an excellent piece on this. Much of what I posted here came from this so I want to make sure he gets credit. https://medium.com/@nharpermn/stop-panicking-about-the-post-office-8bcd689b9601
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let me finish by making the point that this says something about our ability to create narratives for ourselves. when we have a view of how things are it is so easy for us to create narratives around what is going on. This is part of why we need to make sure our knowledge...
let me finish by making the point that this says something about our ability to create narratives for ourselves. when we have a view of how things are it is so easy for us to create narratives around what is going on. This is part of why we need to make sure our knowledge...
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Is grounded in a thorough investigation using rigorous epistemology. We need to make sure that we aren't assembling ideas and stories that fit a narrative using partial fragments of the truth rather than the WHOLE truth.
We need to be careful otherwise we end up here...
Is grounded in a thorough investigation using rigorous epistemology. We need to make sure that we aren't assembling ideas and stories that fit a narrative using partial fragments of the truth rather than the WHOLE truth.
We need to be careful otherwise we end up here...
23/ With Donald Trump claiming he can do something he can't do, and Taylor Swift believing him and coming the to conclusion that he has done something he hasn't done.
They both think Trump can stop the mail, so they both believe he is doing that....and they are both wrong.
They both think Trump can stop the mail, so they both believe he is doing that....and they are both wrong.
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fin/
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