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Is Derrick Henry a liability in the pass game - a thread. cc: @RobOnBroadway @Super_Horn @MikeMiracles @titansfilmroom @FWordsPod @TitansTrev55 @Jbaker0171
Lets start with a graph of Yards per Target (YPT) on a vertical axis and EPA per target (EPAPT)on a horizontal axis. A little housekeeping to start with. EPA is a measure of expected points added for a play. Essentially, not every 8 yard catch is created equally...
A 8 yrd catch on 3rd & 7 moves the chains; an 8 yrd catch on 3&15 gives your punter air time on TV. In terms of scoring points move the chains >>>>>punting. EPA assigns a point value to result and situation. Now moving on to the chart.
The x,y intercept is at the NFL averages for WR's with 40 or more targets for YPT & EPAPT. Above the line = >avg WR in YPT; Right of the line = >avg WR in EPAPT. There is a gaggle of RBs that are in the <avg WR in YPT & EPAPT quadrant. It's easy to see which RB's are not.
Only two RB's with more than 20 targets had both an EPAT and YPT > WR average. Austin Eckler, the RB receiving GAWD, & DERRICK HENRY. Yes, believe it or not, Derrick Henry is above his peers with the ball in his hands whether from a handoff or a pass.
Derrick Henry suffers from a lack of targets. Yes, some of that is he's not McCaffrey as a route runner but stay with me here, a RB who can turn a check down into a house call or a 1st down with some regularity is not a "weakness" in the pass game.
So the next question is should the Titans target Henry at a higher percentage of targets in the pass game and to that I'm going to say, uhm, naw. From this point on, this thread goes from Henry mark to OH, MY GOD, Arthur Smith is one of the best playcallers in the NFL.
By the way, Arthur please forgive me for those things I wrote about you when Marcus Mariota was dragging you down and ruining your rep. So same chart only this time including the main Titans 2020 receiving options.
First, the Titans really have no bad receiving options. As a Titans fan, I really don't know how to process that one. There is AJ Brown being one the best WRs in the NFL. Corey Davis being both effective & above avg explosive...
Jonnu Smith putting up the numbers of an explosive & effective WR let alone a TE (by the way get Jonnu Smith on your fantasy team); Adam Humphries getting those 9 yard receptions on 3rd & 8.
I don't know if Khalif Raymond can hold that over 14 yards per target avg with more targets but I'd be ok with finding out. Firkser has better YPT than your average WR. Given this, I think Arthur Smith is right to make this passing game WR's + Jonnu Smith off play action
Another Arthur Smith is really smart point. 100% of Derrick Henry's targets were on 1st or 2nd down. This is when you target RB's. A 7 or 8 yard reception is much more valuable on 1st & 10 than 3rd & 15.
Side point: given his depth of target & about a 1/4 of his targets on 3rd or 4th down, McCaffrey puts up some impressive effectiveness numbers.
To put a bow on this thread, Derrick Henry isn't a weakness in the pass game; Arthur Smith is smarter than most OC's; the best receiving RB in the NFL is an UDFA from ,no lie, Western State Colorado. If you are still with me on this long thread, thank you, I appreciate it.
One more add, LOL, the Jags giving Leonard Fournette a 100 targets.
