Read on Twitter
1/ I’m no pundit, but I thought I’d try a little thread about something that struck me regarding the (intentional) dismantling of the post office.
2/ Firstly, yes, I firmly believe DeJoy was put in there to take down the post office. And it is awful, and terrible, and an affront to democracy. But I want to focus on something else: how DUMB it is, politically.
3/ Mainly, the point is, what groups value the mail/need the USPS to function properly, most? Two groups spring to mind: older Americans and rural Americans.
4/ Older Americans receive medications and social security checks, among other things, via the mail. Rural Americans are not served by FedEx and UPS - they need the post office to function properly.
5/ So, first, let’s look at older voters:
In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by 7 points nationally among voters 65 and older. In June of this year, Biden had a 2 point lead with voters over 65 nationally, and a double digit lead in Michigan, PA and Wisc. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/donald-trumps-big-problem-with-senior-voters/amp
In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by 7 points nationally among voters 65 and older. In June of this year, Biden had a 2 point lead with voters over 65 nationally, and a double digit lead in Michigan, PA and Wisc. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/donald-trumps-big-problem-with-senior-voters/amp
6/ A Fox News poll in Florida showed Biden up 1 among voters 65 and up, where Trump won the same group by *17 points* in 2016.
7/ So, if you’re Trump, do you really want to mess with this demographic right now, when you’re already losing them in a big way, by screwing with their mail, and by extension their medications, social security checks, etc… Seems politically unwise.
8/ Next, rural voters:
As noted in the linked piece, Trump won rural voters by 33 points in 2016. A Fox News poll from June showed him up 9 points. That’s a ⅔ drop. https://www.google.com/amp/s/dailyyonder.com/if-trumps-rural-edge-has-eroded-what-does-that-mean-for-electoral-math/2020/06/20/
As noted in the linked piece, Trump won rural voters by 33 points in 2016. A Fox News poll from June showed him up 9 points. That’s a ⅔ drop. https://www.google.com/amp/s/dailyyonder.com/if-trumps-rural-edge-has-eroded-what-does-that-mean-for-electoral-math/2020/06/20/
9/ Now, a large part of why Trump won PA, Michigan and Wisconsin, by razor thin margins, was because of his huge margins among rural voters. Drop that support by ⅔, or even half, and Clinton wins those three states.
10/ So, again, ask yourself if it seems wise to mess with a demographic that you’re already slipping badly with, that needs the USPS to recieve needed packages/bills/meds/correspondence, etc… Where FedEx and UPS won’t go. Why do it? Again, it seems unwise.
11/ These are demographics where small margins matter, and little shifts can and often do have a large effect. (And this isn’t even counting veterans, another group that depends on the mail and a group Trump likely can’t afford to lose.)
12/ Conclusion being, it seems unwise, at best, for Trump/DeJoy to continue this anti-mail initiative, because of who it affects. End thread.
