Of course in such a situation the most tempting thing for Putin would be to find a pro-Russian general to overthrow and shoot Lukashenko, become a hero & then try to steer Belarus into Russia’s arms. But arranging such a thing takes time & there are many things that could go https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1294653622874144768

wrong. Another strategy would be to let the opposition take over as happened after Ukraine’s “Orange Revolution”, when Yushchenko became president, then undermine the economy of Belarus and try to create chaos, hoping that disappointed Belarusian elect another Yanukovich. But the

problem with this is that Putin himself is increasingly insecure and is likely to feel he can’t afford to wait.
But still, a direct intervention would the most risky choice, and he hasn’t taken such risks in the past.