On the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II, we should savor and protect the Long Peace that has followed.

Contrary to many expert predictions, eg Einstein, CP Snow, Carl Sagan, Jonathan Schell. "Realist" political scientist H Morenthau, 1979: “The world is moving ineluctably towards a third world war—a strategic nuclear war. I do not believe that anything can be done to prevent it."

In fact: 0 nuclear weapons detonated in war. 0 direct wars bet. US & USSR/Russia. 0 wars bet. great powers (except perhaps US-China in Korea). 0 wars bet. W European states. 0 wars bet. developed countries. 0 recognized states conquered. 0 interstate since '03.

The two world wars were spikes, not harbingers of a trend. Since end of WWII, death rates have roller-coastered down.

All noted in The Better Angels of Our Nature 10 years ago, and still true. See the book for definitions, citations. https://stevenpinker.com/publications/better-angels-our-nature

Possible causes? 1 Nukes? Unlikely (see Angels) 2 US-led world order? Also unlikely. (US fought many wars, sat out of treaties). ...

3 Democracy: Voters brake leaders' egos. 4 Globalization: Don't kill your customers & debtors. 5 Internat orgs: Clubmates don't fight. 6 Outlawry of war: Conquests not recognized. 7 Economics: Wealth comes from tech & commerce, not land. 8 Values: Human life > National glory

None of this is guaranteed to be permanent. Many causes of peace are threatened by nationalist populism.

But some barbarisms, once abolished, stay abolished: Human sacrifice, chattel slavery, harems, eunuchism, heretic-burning, dueling, laughing at the insane, apartheid, male-only suffrage..

Let's try to add war to the list.