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"Refs swallow their whistle in the playoffs" is something every NBA fan seems to just accept as fact. And it is often argued as a reason why James Harden's play-style is not conducive to winning in the postseason. Here's a thread about that:
I'll look at the trend of star player free throw rates (FTr) changing in the postseason and how that compares to Harden.
I'll also include attempts within 3 feet for context on how often the players drove to the basket in the reg season compared to playoffs.
I'll also include attempts within 3 feet for context on how often the players drove to the basket in the reg season compared to playoffs.
James Harden in Houston, 2012-2019 regular season FTr: 53.1%
(26.7% of attempts within 3 feet)
James Harden in Houston, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 45.4%
(23.9% of attempts within 3 feet)
(26.7% of attempts within 3 feet)
James Harden in Houston, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 45.4%
(23.9% of attempts within 3 feet)
Lebron James, 2012-2019 regular season FTr: 38.4%
(40.2% of attempts within three feet)
Lebron James, 2013-2018 postseason FTr: 39.5%
(36.8% of attempts within three feet)
(40.2% of attempts within three feet)
Lebron James, 2013-2018 postseason FTr: 39.5%
(36.8% of attempts within three feet)
Steph Curry, 2012-2019 regular season FTr: 24.9%
(17.1% of attempts within 3 feet)
Steph Curry, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 27.4%
(17.3% of attempts within 3 feet)
(17.1% of attempts within 3 feet)
Steph Curry, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 27.4%
(17.3% of attempts within 3 feet)
Kevin Durant, 2012-2019 regular season FTr: 40.9%
(21.3% of attempts within 3 feet)
Kevin Durant, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 39%
(17.3% of attempts within 3 feet)
(21.3% of attempts within 3 feet)
Kevin Durant, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 39%
(17.3% of attempts within 3 feet)
Russell Westbrook, 2012-2019 regular season FTr: 37.6%
(34.5% of attempts within 3 feet)
Russell Westbrook, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 36.1%
(30.8% of attempts within 3 feet)
(34.5% of attempts within 3 feet)
Russell Westbrook, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 36.1%
(30.8% of attempts within 3 feet)
Chris Paul, 2012-2019 regular season FTr: 31.7%
(10.1% of attempts within 3 feet)
Chris Paul, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 26.2%
(12.8% of attempts within 3 feet)
(10.1% of attempts within 3 feet)
Chris Paul, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 26.2%
(12.8% of attempts within 3 feet)
Damian Lillard, 2013-2019 regular season FTr: 33.6%
(27.9% of attempts within 3 feet)
Damian Lillard, 2014-2019 postseason FTr: 32.6%
(28.5% of attempts within 3 feet)
(27.9% of attempts within 3 feet)
Damian Lillard, 2014-2019 postseason FTr: 32.6%
(28.5% of attempts within 3 feet)
Paul George, 2012-2019 regular season FTr: 31.2%
(19.2% of attempts within 3 feet)
Paul George, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 42.5%
(21.6% of attempts within 3 feet)
(19.2% of attempts within 3 feet)
Paul George, 2013-2019 postseason FTr: 42.5%
(21.6% of attempts within 3 feet)
Kyrie Irving, 2014-2019 regular season FTr: 23.7%
(24.7% of attempts within 3 feet)
Kyrie Irving, 2015-2019 postseason FTr: 24.3%
(25.4% of attempts within 3 feet)
(24.7% of attempts within 3 feet)
Kyrie Irving, 2015-2019 postseason FTr: 24.3%
(25.4% of attempts within 3 feet)
I need to put a disclaimer on Kawhi. It seems that his @bball_ref page is bugged and does not count his Raptors postseason when looking at shooting. So I will include his *career* numbers which are accurate, but unfortunately these will include his role player seasons.
Kawhi Leonard, 2011-2019 regular season FTr: 32.4%
(22.8% of attempts within 3 feet)
Kawhi Leonard, 2012-2019 postseason FTr: 35.8%
(24.7% of attempts within 3 feet)
(22.8% of attempts within 3 feet)
Kawhi Leonard, 2012-2019 postseason FTr: 35.8%
(24.7% of attempts within 3 feet)
I should note here that Kawhi's role player years are really dragging the FTr down. Despite moving further from the basket as his career has gone on, overall his FTr has increased, and in the 2019 postseason was much higher than Harden's (43.5% vs. 37.1%)
CP3 seems to be hated by playoff refs like Harden, while every other star tends to get their FT's as usual. And in some cases, the officials *really* like a star, such as Paul George.
At some point we need to question why refs treat Harden differently than other stars.
At some point we need to question why refs treat Harden differently than other stars.
Also, I'm trying to only include stars with substantial playoff experience in the past ~8 years for the sake of minimizing variability, hence why guys like Carmelo and AD aren't named here.
