Quick thread on current UK COVID19 numbers based on my @IndependentSage briefing yesterday... (H/T to @GabrielScally for twitterising the slides) 1/8

Deaths continue to decline (ONS gold standard measure), hospital admissions are v low and flat. Confirmed cases though are continuing to increase. How much of it is more testing? (NB slide updated with latest numbers) 2/8

From looking positivity rates (number of people tested who are then positive), community cases *were* increasing 2nd half of July, but first week of August saw a (small) decline. This is good news. 3/8

Looking at map of cases over that week, current hotspots cooled and no new hotspots sprang up. Combo of restrictions starting to work and people being outside in hot weather stopping spread elsewhere? 4/8

BUT (and a big BUT) - we've now seen 5 days over 1000 cases in last week. We don't have numbers of people tested yet for that week to know if many more were tested, but it's concerning. 5/8

Other similarly sized EU countries also struggling (more than us at the moment, except Italy). Spain, with largest spike by far, is now seeing many more hospitalisations too. These aren't cases without consequence. 6/8

Govt Joint Biosecurity Centre suggest over 1000 cases was a concerning threshold. Latest opening was delayed cos of increasing cases. They are still increasing. Why is govt going ahead with opening? 7/8

They shouldn't do this! You wouldn't tolerate lots of small fires in your house - why tolerate COVID? We need to get cases DOWN to open & keep open schools. Read @IndependentSage consultation document on how to keep schools open here https://www.independentsage.org/preliminary-consultation-document-to-inform-an-updated-independent-sage-schools-report/ 8/8