This is my 3rd Crypto Bull Market. While they are all different they share many similar patterns.

Here are some lessons from the 2017 crypto bull market.

#crypto #eth #btc #Bitcoin #defi #yieldfarming

1. When the bull market starts, the macro matters way more than the micro. Rising tide lifts all boats.

2. Usually not worth waiting for small drops to enter positions. Things can often retrace to higher lows than what your initial buy was at.

Ex: Better to buy something 50% up than wait for it to hit 150% up and retrace to 100% up

3. Narratives matter. A LOT. Memes and marketing drive narratives. I wish I could say things have matured and changed a lot since 2017 but in reality human nature never changes.

People always look to shortcut heuristics to make investment decisions. It’s how our brains work. Crypto is no exception. Digital gold is a narrative. DeFi is a narrative. Yield farming is a narrative. Inflation hedge is a narrative.

4. You will NEVER sell the TOP. In fact in order to even have liquidity to sell your position the market price needs to go HIGHER than your sell price by definition. You need buy orders to Buy your position or you will be selling into nothing.

5. Once the top happens the buy side liquidity dries up FAST making it VERY hard to sell without incurring a lot of slippage.

6. The top WILL come. It always does. Often when you are feeling the most euphoria. Signs include wide spreads across exchanges. CNBC anchors educating viewers on how to buy alt coins. Politicians tweeting about crypto. Family members asking you about bitcoin.

Uber drivers mentioning crypto. Your 15 year old cousin buying a new Rolex. Countless crypto Ponzi scams popping up. Bitcoin Twitter scams. Increased Phone porting. Mainstream news (CNN, NYT, WSJ) quoting how much money ppl made. Late night talk shows talking about crypto.

7. Biggest gains often come from from buying early and HOLDING through. Not trying to day trade. You need to be able to stomach 50% drops even in a bull market

8. Some relevant anecdotes from 2017:

Ether was trading around $100 in May 2017, it ripped up to $400 a key level and came all the way back down to $142. Thats a ~65% draw down in the middle of a bull market. Not for the faint of heart.

9. Then there was a head fake with ETH running back to $400 then rolling over to ~$200.

10. However, those that held went on to see $1400 ETH 6 months later.

Lesson here is things often start gradually...then all at once.

There are lots of macro factors at play this time around. Unprecedented fed money printing, low yield environment and investors looking for inflation hedges.

All this coincides with DeFi finding early product market fit. We could be in for an interesting 12 months.

All that said, these markets are fickle and can get spooked by the slightest news or regulatory action. Governments will not take lightly if bitcoin begins siphoning demand out of the USD as a store of value.

However, let's not forget that was the point all along.