Read on Twitter
In these first two days of #RWRI14/ #RWRI my key takeaways relate to avoidance of ruin, #risk layering, dynamic assessment of risk, and fat tail risk awareness.
For us practitioners, these considerations drive decisions re risk recognition and mitigation.
For us practitioners, these considerations drive decisions re risk recognition and mitigation.
On the third day of #RWRI14/ #RWRI, I am part of the way building a Twitter list of all fellow learners. And here are pics of all of us that @nntaleb tweeted earlier. https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1293555162443849729?s=20
Day 3 of #RWRI14/ #RWRI we discussed power laws, Lindy effect, and then complex systems, self organising systems, networks, chaotic dynamics, entropy. Lots of side chat on Goedel Escher Bach and James Gleick's book on chaos.
Maths refreshers great but the sessions come alive+
Maths refreshers great but the sessions come alive+
+ with real world examples. For me, anyway.
GMOs for instance & how the failure to understand computational irreducibility can lead to poor decisions (we discussed Bt crops; I was thinking of how India has loads Bt cotton but that decision can't be extended to Bt food crops).
GMOs for instance & how the failure to understand computational irreducibility can lead to poor decisions (we discussed Bt crops; I was thinking of how India has loads Bt cotton but that decision can't be extended to Bt food crops).
That was during the discussion on convexity, payoffs, fragility (also robustness, antifragility), relationship between size & structural strength/ size & fragility, requisite variety for resilience. Great discussion on decentralisation subsidiarity, localism (lessons on building+
+ for resilience). Q to ponder: why do complex systems become weak absent stressors?
Each day in RWRI has numerous departure points where I guess all learners bring their own unique lens to concepts being introduced/ discussed. Easy to see why alumni return again and again.
Each day in RWRI has numerous departure points where I guess all learners bring their own unique lens to concepts being introduced/ discussed. Easy to see why alumni return again and again.
Papers:
Antifragility & convex responses in medicine: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf
Fragility & tail risks: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12216.pdf
Limits to the usefulness of the idea of homeostasis (is the normal heartbeat chaotic or homeostatic?):
https://journals.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/physiologyonline.1991.6.2.87
Antifragility & convex responses in medicine: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.00065.pdf
Fragility & tail risks: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12216.pdf
Limits to the usefulness of the idea of homeostasis (is the normal heartbeat chaotic or homeostatic?):
https://journals.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/physiologyonline.1991.6.2.87
Also see @mmencherogarcia's excellent tweets covering Day 3: https://twitter.com/mmencherogarcia/status/1293614078661996546?s=20
Day 4 of #RWRI14/ #RWRI takeaways for me: speculation v forecasting, convexity & relationship with payoffs & second order effects, more about fat tails. Much to decompress every day to identify things I see in work sitns.
Ace tweets from @WittyUsername30 https://twitter.com/WittyUsername30/status/1294057103380885504?s=20
Ace tweets from @WittyUsername30 https://twitter.com/WittyUsername30/status/1294057103380885504?s=20
Looking forward to @financequant's session on cellular automata resuming.
Day 5 of #RWRI14/ #RWRI takeaways for me: I let it percolate over the weekend, reviewing past and imminent decisions through the lens of key concepts discussed: convexity, optionality (an "option" for a cost, not an obligation), vulnerability of models, extreme v outlier +
+ power laws (and their scalability).
So much value is in the rich Q&A and discussion through the sessions. Where else would we talk about the α for pandemics, wars, quakes?
So much value is in the rich Q&A and discussion through the sessions. Where else would we talk about the α for pandemics, wars, quakes?
The best tweets from the session are from @mmencherogarcia: https://twitter.com/mmencherogarcia/status/1294337598681481216?s=11
The best tweets are also from @WittyUsername30 (I take notes in an old fashioned paper notebook so I admire the tweets even more!) https://twitter.com/WittyUsername30/status/1294388533977899009?s=20
And since it takes me quite some time to unpack everything for my own purposes, I have already inquired about returning to a future session of #RWRI.
#RWRI14 is being held virtually and I know I am not the only one keen to return as @DarkoDoko72 says: https://twitter.com/DarkoDoko72/status/1294545297373200384?s=20
#RWRI14 is being held virtually and I know I am not the only one keen to return as @DarkoDoko72 says: https://twitter.com/DarkoDoko72/status/1294545297373200384?s=20
Bonus read before today's session: in which @NachoOliveras tackles #ergodicity (which, those reading the tweets about #RWRI14 must have gathered, is discussed and debated a lot): https://anti-fragilista.com/f/ergodicity-and-life
On returning to #RWRI https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1294602422418014215?s=20
Day 6 of #RWRI14/ #RWRI: brilliant session with @financequant on cellular automata, entropy, simplicity, fragility with some fab discussion on systems, recursive fractals, agent based models. Pondering in the break how to use this learning to "simplify" things eg processes.
And then there was a fab session by @ArieHaziza on how reinsurance risks and their modelling works, and then how fat tails are contained via contractual conditions. Risks of cascading phenomena are too real (esp if you are in the UK, watching the A Levels grades tamāsha!)
And here is a cracking good thread of tweets by @WittyUsername30 https://twitter.com/WittyUsername30/status/1295511090021924865?s=20
