Looks like it's time to short the telenovela industry $BWMX

I was right about the telenovelas.. Isabel Salas is a Mexican YouTube star with over 600,000 followers and naturally, she enjoys trying and making shows about Betterware $BWMX products.

Seriously though, how do you short the telenovela industry? $BWMX

The key factor that polls failed to take into account?

Holding the election on the day that the new $BWMX catalogue dropped.

In amongst the excellent $BWMX Betterware Q3 headline results - revenues +200%, FY20 EBITDA guidance raised by a third into the final Q - I think it's worth keeping an eye on the datapoint below

@valuepretender posted up an excellent Spanish language Forbes article on Betterware; by the end of H1/20 associates had doubled from 400k to 800k and distributors from 21k to 42k - which makes it easy enough to isolate the additions here in Q3 from the company's numbers

Almost as many associates and distributors have been added in Q3 as in Q1 & Q2: I have an additional 360k/20k now totaling 1160k and 60k.

Meanwhile the unemployment rate in Mexico is predicted to rise this year from 3.5% in 2019 to over 11% https://www.forbes.com.mx/economia-tasa-de-desempleo-mexico-llegar-11-7-fin-de-anio-oit/

The same Forbes article opens with the story of a housewife who has replaced all her furniture as an example of the benefits of working for BW before explaining how the 3.3M Mexicans in direct sales make it the 7th in the world for this type of work.

To be sure, I think BW is great, dirt cheap and custom designed to work in at least half a dozen Latam countries beyond Mexico but beyond amazing products (and they are *amazing*) it's worth bearing in mind that a proportion of this hyper-growth may be in part a response to covid