PapersOfTheDay

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1288589472452534273

"SARS-CoV-2 in rural Latin America. A population-based study in coastal Ecuador"
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1055/5876901

"SARS-CoV-2-related mortality in a rural Latin American population"
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220306305#bib0030
This thread will go over further examples of higher infection rates in smaller populations, supporting the argument below on how the herd immunity threshold (HIT) is relatively high.

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1292997236843057156

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1282213024905015298
Note that special pleading will not work, including claiming ridiculously high levels of heterogeneity ad hoc, beyond what one should expect for a respiratory virus like SARS-CoV-2.

https://twitter.com/bansallab/status/1259970552074207238
https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/C24D3E55E075B29059AF654BB6D84576/S1446181113000035a.pdf/spatial_heterogeneity_in_simple_deterministic_sir_models_assessed_ecologically.pdf

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1287793110613987331

https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-math-of-covid-19-herd-immunity-20200630/
Infection rates.

Long-term care facility:
64%: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2008457

Ships:
59%: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6923e4.htm
59%: https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/coronavirus-bilan-definitif-de-1046-cas-sur-le-charles-de-gaulle-20200418
59%: https://thorax.bmj.com/content/75/8/693

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012
Co-habitation with an infected person:
80%:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.01.20119602v1

House-hold prevalence:
~30% - ~40%:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0992-3
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa688/5849290

Overnight camp:
76%
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6931e1.htm

Choir practice:
53% - 87%: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-83 
Prisons:
98%: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/louisana-prison-unit-has-192-of-195-inmates-test-positive-for-covid-19-2020-05-05
92%: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/494322-92-percent-of-inmates-tested-for-covid-19-at-indiana-prison-receive
88%: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in-idUSKCN2270RX ; https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012
85%: https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/coronavirus/article_2c551b72-8fbb-11ea-849a-e390bbc57059.html
78%: https://time.com/5825030/ohio-mass-testing-prisons-coronavirus-outbreaks/
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200424/more-data-bolsters-higher-covid-prevalence
72%: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6926e2.htm
65%: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-jails-specailr/special-report-death-sentence-the-hidden-coronavirus-toll-in-u-s-jails-and-prisons-idUSKBN22U1V2
Re: "This thread will go over further examples of higher infection rates in smaller populations"

Thread on a related point: https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1293282163811442689
Risk of under-estimated COVID-19 deaths in India, thus under-estimating IFR:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.29.20164392v2
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.31.20166249v1
https://science.thewire.in/health/india-mccd-comorbidities-covid-19-deaths-undercounting/
https://science.thewire.in/health/maharashtra-missing-covid-19-fatalities-reconciliation/

Berhampur, India:
~31%: https://ommcomnews.com/odisha-news/1-3rd-of-berhampurs-population-have-developed-antibodies-against-covid-19-rmrc-director
Ship:
85%: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.13.20173161v1

Long-term care facility:
78%: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.10.20171413v1 https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1294985945968783360
https://twitter.com/joel_c_miller/status/1295638598801268736

Pune, India:
~52%:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/pune-survey-suggests-51-5-have-antibodies/story-9MlFUJfmiWnNOrzujCwKIP.html
https://science.thewire.in/health/pune-covid-19-epidemic-seroprevalence-survey-igg-antibodies-infection-fatality-rate/

http://www.iiserpune.ac.in/userfiles/files/Pune_Serosurvey_Technical_report-16_08_2020.pdf
[ http://www.iiserpune.ac.in/news/epidemiological-and-serological-surveillance-of]
For folks who want an example of cite to non-experts who falsely claim ~10 - ~20% infection is enough for herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2:

- relatively few older people, so few deaths occurred
- population density low since tourists left

https://videocast.nih.gov/watch%3D38084 , from 40:29 - 42:02
Re: "an example of cite to"

Meant:
"an example *to* cite to"

Further context on Ischgl, Austria:

- ~42% infected without achieving herd immunity, based on seroprevalence
- IFR of ~0.3% (younger-skewed population)

https://www.i-med.ac.at/mypoint/news/746359.html

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nlmcatalog/101769642
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1293519777735073794

Delhi, India:
29%:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/29-of-delhi-has-antibodies-for-covid-19-second-sero-survey/story-JE4rKi7lMDYaOgAacWoCVK.html
Re: "Further context on Ischgl, Austria:
- ~42% infected without achieving herd immunity, based on seroprevalence
- IFR of ~0.3% (younger-skewed population)"

https://web.archive.org/web/20200610041948/https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.00045.pdf
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/368/6493/860.full.pdf

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1293002936252092422
https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293346418158051330

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.20.20178533v1
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1275545888606347265

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6933a3.htm
Maranhão (overall):
40%
sub-regions:
48%
39%
35%
31%

https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1299519949988265984

http://www.saude.ma.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Relat%C3%B3rio-do-Inqu%C3%A9rito-Sorol%C3%B3gico-no-Maranh%C3%A3o.pdf
Re: "Maranhão (overall):
40%"

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.28.20180463v1
"Population-based seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 is more than halfway through the herd immunity threshold in the State of Maranhao, Brazil"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.28.20180463v1
Re: "~40%"

Mumbai, India

https://twitter.com/swapneilparikh/status/1288108188735164416
https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/mumbai/higher-share-in-slums-exposed-to-virus-than-in-societies-mumbai-sero-survey-6527865/

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1288589472452534273

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.27.20182741v1
Manaus, Brazil:
66%

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.16.20194787v1.full
https://twitter.com/CovidSerology/status/1308462766177484800
Re: ""SARS-CoV-2-related mortality in a rural Latin American population"

Atahualpa (update):
~48%

"Late incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a highly-endemic remote rural village. A prospective population-based cohort study"
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/20477724.2020.1826152
Dhaka, Bangladesh:
45% (overall)
74% (sub-regions)

http://ddnews.gov.in/international/45-people-dhaka-carry-covid-19-antivirus-iedcr

https://tbsnews.net/coronavirus-chronicle/covid-19-bangladesh/45-dhaka-population-develops-covid-19-antibodies-144205
Re: "Dhaka, Bangladesh:
45% (overall)
74% (sub-regions)"

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1316772751076720648

https://www.icddrb.org/news-and-events/press-corner/press-releases?id=97&task=view
[ https://archive.is/M1NsN ]
Re: "This thread will go over further examples of higher infection rates in smaller populations, supporting the argument below on how the herd immunity threshold (HIT) is relatively high"

Karnataka, India:
47% (overall)
54% (sub-regions)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.02.20224782v1
Re: "This thread will go over further examples of higher infection rates in smaller populations, supporting the argument below on how the herd immunity threshold (HIT) is relatively high"

Monteria, Colombia:
55%
https://academic.oup.com/ofid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ofid/ofaa550/5977863
“Evidence against [herd immunity thresholds of 10-20%] is mounting, including [...] attack rates exceeding 50% in the hardest hit regions [...]”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20242289v1

https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1334597442839384070

Summary of some examples of this covered in this thread:

https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/14/t-cell-cross-reactivity-and-the-herd-immunity-threshold/#comment-933276
“Evidence against [herd immunity thresholds of 10-20%] is mounting, including [...] attack rates exceeding 50% in the hardest hit regions [...]” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20242289v1 https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1334597442839384070Summary of some examples of this covered in this thread: https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/14/t-cell-cross-reactivity-and-the-herd-immunity-threshold/#comment-933276
“Evidence against [herd immunity thresholds of 10-20%] is mounting, including [...] attack rates exceeding 50% in the hardest hit regions [...]” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20242289v1 https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1334597442839384070Summary of some examples of this covered in this thread: https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/14/t-cell-cross-reactivity-and-the-herd-immunity-threshold/#comment-933276
“Evidence against [herd immunity thresholds of 10-20%] is mounting, including [...] attack rates exceeding 50% in the hardest hit regions [...]” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20242289v1 https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1334597442839384070Summary of some examples of this covered in this thread: https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/14/t-cell-cross-reactivity-and-the-herd-immunity-threshold/#comment-933276
“Evidence against [herd immunity thresholds of 10-20%] is mounting, including [...] attack rates exceeding 50% in the hardest hit regions [...]” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20242289v1 https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1334597442839384070Summary of some examples of this covered in this thread: https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/14/t-cell-cross-reactivity-and-the-herd-immunity-threshold/#comment-933276
Re: "further examples of higher infection rates in smaller populations, supporting the argument below on how the herd immunity threshold (HIT) is relatively high"

Perpignan, France:
35% (overall)
47% (particular district)

https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/presse/2020/covid-19-premiers-resultats-d-une-etude-de-seroprevalence-aupres-d-une-population-vulnerable-de-perpignan

https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/etudes-et-enquetes/scope-une-etude-de-seroprevalence-aupres-d-une-population-vulnerable-de-perpignan
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