Read on Twitter
Striking (at least to me) how little impact COVID-19 has had on China's trade ...
(same could be said for the impact of Trump's trade war on China's overall trade)
1/n
(same could be said for the impact of Trump's trade war on China's overall trade)
1/n
There of course was an impact in q1 -- the normal seasonal downturn from the Chinese new year was more pronounced. But amid a generalized slowdown in global trade, China's q2 exports were essentially unchanged from last year
2/n
2/n
So far at least COVID 19 has had a smaller impact on China's trade (in manufactures) than the global financial crisis, or the dollar appreciation/ commodity shock of 14-15
3/n
3/n
Now that all could change, as Rana Foroohar suggests in the FT. Certainly there is political pressure for it to change. But it hasn't changed yet.
4/n https://www.ft.com/content/3a21c843-43ed-4e94-b78e-635947050c71
4/n https://www.ft.com/content/3a21c843-43ed-4e94-b78e-635947050c71
COVID-19 has had a bigger impact on U.S. exports (non-petrol, I was lazy and also used the seasonally adjusted) than Chinese exports (manufactures, not seasonally adjusted). U.S. non-petrol exports in June were down 20% y/y
Neither Trump (so far) nor COVID 19 (so far) nor the global reaction to COVID 19 (early but also so far) have put a dent in China's massive surplus in manufactures.
6/n
6/n
And with commodity prices down and the collapse in travel and tourism, China's overall surplus not surprisingly has soared
7/7
7/7
