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1/ Bruno Fernandes: What's he worth, what price should he be and can he continue his 2019/20 form? [Thread]
Please take the following statistics with a pinch of salt, there's limited minutes to look at. #FPL #FPLCommunity
Please take the following statistics with a pinch of salt, there's limited minutes to look at. #FPL #FPLCommunity
2/ I'm hoping to conclude his potential for next season - based on underlying stats.
Whilst Fernandes played 14/14 games since joining united, completing 1187 minutes, for the sakes of this analysis I'm going to assume he will play 2800 minutes across the season. (Pessimistic?)
Whilst Fernandes played 14/14 games since joining united, completing 1187 minutes, for the sakes of this analysis I'm going to assume he will play 2800 minutes across the season. (Pessimistic?)
3/ Over the short course of his time at United, Fernandes has an xG90 of 0.44 and an xA90 of 0.2, however, for the sakes of this calculations I’m going to remove penalties and do them separately. Giving a npxG90 of 0.22 instead. #FPL
4/ To me, the xA90 of 0.2 was very surprising, I was under the impression he was an proficient chance creator! It turns out that he has over performed his xA at United by 154%, with 7 goals created from an xA of only 2.76.
I digress, let's calculate. #FPL
I digress, let's calculate. #FPL
5/ I estimate Fernandes to score 6.9 non penalty goals and generate 6.2 assists next season. (+1 fantasy assist, giving 7.2) #FPL
6/ I did not want to guess the amount of penalties that United receive next season, so I have scaled the amount of penalties that Fernandes took this season for united to give a total of 9.4 for next season. Over the course of his career he has missed 7.7% of penalties. #FPL
7/ This gives us 8.7 scored penalties and 0.72 missed ones.
This gives us a total of 15.6 goals, 7.2 assists and 0.73 missed penalties. In points this gives us: 101.3 points. #FPL
This gives us a total of 15.6 goals, 7.2 assists and 0.73 missed penalties. In points this gives us: 101.3 points. #FPL
8/ Combine this with 70 for appearances, 14 for cleans and -4.7 for yellows gives us a total of 180.6 points.
I did a quick calculation on bonus points for Fernandes. Turns out every time he got bonus, it was directly related to how many goals he scored. #FPL
I did a quick calculation on bonus points for Fernandes. Turns out every time he got bonus, it was directly related to how many goals he scored. #FPL
9/ Every time he scored, he got either 2 or 3 bonus. 18 points for 8 goals gives us 2.25 bonus per goal. (Small sample size but it’s all we have).
Using our estimate of 15.6 goals next season, gives us 35.15 bonus, totalling us at 215.8 points for the season. #FPL
Using our estimate of 15.6 goals next season, gives us 35.15 bonus, totalling us at 215.8 points for the season. #FPL
10/ In my opinion worthy of an ~11.25m player.
I have a feeling FPL towers could price him higher, but sometimes they are hesitant to quickly raise prices quickly so we’ll have to wait and see. #FPL
I have a feeling FPL towers could price him higher, but sometimes they are hesitant to quickly raise prices quickly so we’ll have to wait and see. #FPL
11/ I've seen a lot of people discussing buying him for 12-12.5m estimating him to score around 250+ points, so I just wanted to share my opinion! #FPL
12/ TL;DR I estimate Fernandes to regress a bit to the mean, scoring around 215 points next season, being worth around 11.25m.
If you liked my analysis, please do follow for more @Ramorey_FPL
#FPL #FPLCommunity
If you liked my analysis, please do follow for more @Ramorey_FPL
#FPL #FPLCommunity
