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That's a fair question, and as with anything that compares our world as it is now (based on certain decisions taken in the past) with a hypothetical alternative world (which could have been if different decisions had been taken), there are no straightforward answers 1/ https://twitter.com/michaelturton/status/1292234454102994944
I still think the cynic inside of me is right and that the "pro-engagement crowd" missed an important opportunity for genuine change in China by focusing primarily on economic opportunities, thereby helping the CCP strengthening its grip on power after 1989 2/
That said, I do believe that alongside this more or less cynical economic engagement, there was a more serious type of engagement at the civil society level (through academic exchanges, transnational networks, and *certain* dialogues) that bore fruit to some degree 3/
I'm thinking of some of the progress in China's legal system before Xi's legalist turn as well as various rights movements in China that drew on transnational networks. That's not to say that these only emerged in China due to gracious foreign help 4/
But it helps to not have to reinvent the wheel at every turn. So my point was, history wasn't written in stone in 1989 or in 2001, and China was not bound to end the way it has under Xi Jinping. Engagement, especially at the civil society level, was not *bound* to fail 5/
I say that as someone who has been critical of facile engagement rhetoric since at least 2008. But I don't think it's fair to lump everyone in with the opportunists. Some people did serious exchanges with Chinese partners - the kind which is now no longer possible 6/
Because the Party now monopolizes everything and we increasingly get people-to-party exchanges. But I don't think it's fair to say that the groups and foundations and transnational networks who worked with Chinese partners were only chasing pipedreams all along. 7/
There was progress. Which is part of the reason why the Party was so keen to smash what had formed (both w/ and w/out the help of transnational networks). And it sure did, with full force. But I don't judge the people who felt optimistic for a while. There was a chance. 8/8
