thinking: having worked w/ some great investors in my odd career as an early stage "operangel," have observed:

the secret of the very best investors is that they lean heavily on people smarter than them in all the key areas other than their unique lens.

ability to do this is likely driven by genuine insatiable curiosity and making some dumb mistakes before with miscalculated expertise and false confidence in themselves.

of course, there is an art to this: you don't want to defer investment decisions to jaded industry experts (there's a reason they're being disrupted).

best investors I know craft the right questions and apply credibility and doubt in just the right doses to each answer.

over time, I have challenged myself to only lean on my gut in the areas of my () unique lens, and lean less on my general gut (despite how tempting it is to do otherwise).

applies for all leaders: develop the network and art of leveraging it for insight but not for decisions, assemble data points w/ the right questions, reduce scope - but increase intensity - of conviction, and then hope for a bit of luck.

and remember: luck favors decisiveness.