Thread on the growing talk about the next political steps in light of Macron’s trip to Beirut this week.

Sources say that Hezbollah has shifted its hardline position on the government, paving the way for concessions and a more inclusive approach. 1/7

The Lebanese PM’s call for early parliamentary elections is an indicator of this potential change, and so is the lack of a Hezbollah-led crackdown on demonstrators today. 2/7

According to this narrative, the Paris donors conference tomorrow, backed by an Arab-French understanding, will provide international support for such a shift, which will take the form of a new government to oversee an early elections. 3/7

The issue of HA’s arsenal will not be on the negotiating table, unlike the current political setup. And an early elections would most surely put an end to the current pro-HA majority, the 1st since 2005. Thus it would be safe to expect a delay, perhaps until next year. 4/7

Given how detrimental early elections could be to President Michel Aoun’s party, the old coalitions including Hezbollah’s alliance with Aoun, are expected to further crack once this change in course is confirmed. 5/7

If the former HA tapestry of coalitions/understandings, are declared dead, the party is expected to let go of its political matchmaker, Wafiq Safa, the head of Hezbollah's Liaison and Coordination Unit. 6/7

This would serve as a signal of change to the party’s support base, which is demanding the organization take a stronger stance on corruption as promised in the 2018 elections. 7/7